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FOREX-Dollar languishes at two-month low after Biden clinches U.S. presidency

Published 11/09/2020, 09:41 AM
Updated 11/09/2020, 09:50 AM
© Reuters.
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* Dollar falls as Biden wins; losses limited by uncertainty
* Yuan makes fresh 28-month high offshore as trade war seen
ebbing
* Kiwi hits 19-month peak; Aussie at seven week high
* Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E

By Tom Westbrook
SYDNEY, Nov 9 (Reuters) - The dollar hit a 10-week low on
Monday as investors heralded Joe Biden's election as U.S.
president by buying trade-exposed currencies on expectations
that a calmer White House could boost world commerce and that
monetary policy will remain easy.
The Chinese yuan CNY= struck a 28-month peak, the New
Zealand dollar NZD=D3 made a 19-month high and the Australian
dollar AUD=D3 hit a seven-week top as the dollar index fell to
its lowest since early September =USD . The South Korean won
KRW= hit a 21-month high of 1,115.33 per dollar.
Sterling GBP=D3 hit its highest in more than two months
while the euro EUR= rose 0.1%, extending an almost 2% gain
from last week to hit a two-month high of $1.1895.
Biden crossed the threshold of the 270 electoral college
votes required for victory on Saturday by winning the
battleground state of Pennsylvania. Republicans appear to have
retained control of the Senate, though the final makeup may not
be clear until runoff votes in Georgia in January. "The outcome is ideal from a market point of view," said CMC
Markets' chief strategist in Sydney, Michael McCarthy. "Neither
party controls the Congress, so both trade wars and higher taxes
are largely off the agenda."
The prospect of more gridlock also means that expectations
for a massive U.S. fiscal stimulus package have been lowered,
which has sent bond yields sharply lower in anticipation of less
borrowing and more quantitative easing from the U.S. Federal
Reserve.
The broad dollar weakness had the yen JPY= a touch firmer
against the U.S. dollar and just below Friday's eight-month peak
of 103.18 yen per dollar, while lower U.S. bond yields also made
Treasuries less attractive to prodigious buyers in Japan. US/
The yuan, particularly sensitive to the election outcome
because of a perception that Biden will take a softer or more
predictable line on China, was also boosted by strong Chinese
trade data over the weekend to stand at 6.5826 per dollar.
"The undertow of dollar weakness is probably going to have a
bit of a way to run in terms of the Fed and also less trade
tension as something positive for other currencies," said
Westpac currency analyst Sean Callow.
Larger moves were held in check on Monday because currency
markets had largely reacted to Biden's victory on Friday and
because Donald Trump, the first incumbent to lose a re-election
bid in 28 years, has made no sign of conceding. "We would caution that heightened volatility is not
necessarily behind us, even though the election result is all
but settled," said Commonwealth Bank of Australia currency
analyst Kim Mundy in a note.
The president, who has spent months trying to undermine the
election results with unproven allegations of fraud, pledged on
Saturday to go forward with a legal strategy that he hopes will
overturn state results that gave Biden the win.
Traders are also wary as coronavirus cases surge, with the
global tally of infections topping 50 million on Sunday as cases
in the United States surpassed 10 million - stoking worries of
more lockdowns. Later on Monday are appearances from Bank of England
Governor Andrew Bailey and chief economist Andy Haldane at 1035
GMT and 1400 GMT, where talk of negative rates is in focus.
Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan makes a speech at 2200 GMT.
On Wednesday the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets, with
expectations it will hold rates but lay the framework for going
negative next year.
In emerging markets, the beaten-down Turkish lira
TRYTOM=D3 rose as much as 2% in the wake of the ouster of the
central bank chief and the resignation of Turkey's finance
minister over the weekend. The lira has slid 30% to record lows this year amid the
coronavirus pandemic as investors worried about falling forex
reserves and double-digit inflation.

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Currency bid prices at 12:30PM in Sydney (0130 GMT)
Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid
Previous Change
Session
Euro/Dollar EUR=EBS $1.1890 $1.1877 +0.12% +6.07% +1.1895 +1.1861
Dollar/Yen JPY=D3 103.3000 103.2800 +0.04% -4.87% +103.4050 +103.3000
Euro/Yen EURJPY= 122.83 122.69 +0.11% +0.71% +122.8800 +122.7000
Dollar/Swiss CHF=EBS 0.8996 0.9003 -0.08% -7.03% +0.9002 +0.8988
Sterling/Dollar GBP=D3 1.3186 1.3150 +0.30% -0.55% +1.3192 +1.3155
Dollar/Canadian CAD=D3 1.3014 1.3064 -0.41% +0.15% +1.3062 +1.3008
Aussie/Dollar AUD=D3 0.7281 0.7261 +0.30% +3.78% +0.7290 +0.7268
NZ NZD=D3 0.6804 0.6773 +0.55% +1.20% +0.6812 +0.6785
Dollar/Dollar


All spots FX=
Tokyo spots AFX=
Europe spots EFX=
Volatilities FXVOL=
Tokyo Forex market info from BOJ TKYFX

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