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FOREX-Dollar hunkers down before key U.S. jobs report

Published 09/04/2020, 10:13 AM
Updated 09/04/2020, 10:20 AM
© Reuters.
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* Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E
* Analysts are bearish on U.S. dollar
* Aussie supported by retail sales data
* Traders await non-farm payrolls

By Stanley White
TOKYO, Sept 4 (Reuters) - The dollar steadied against major
currencies on Friday as traders awaited key U.S. jobs data that
may cast doubt on the strength of economic recovery from the
coronavirus outbreak.
The Australian dollar clawed back early losses and
stabilised after the country's retail sales accelerated in July,
easing concern about the economy.
The greenback has managed to halt its recent slide, but
analysts warn sentiment remains weak due to concern about the
strength of U.S. economic growth and speculation that the
Federal Reserve will keep rates low for a very long time.
"The dollar has rebounded against the euro and could
continue to rise a little further," said Junichi Ishikawa,
senior foreign exchange strategist at IG Securities in Tokyo.
"However, my main scenario is for the dollar to fall, for
stocks to rise and for yields to fall because the Fed is
expected to stick with low interest rates."
Against the euro EUR=D3 , the dollar stood at $1.1851 in
Asia on Friday, extending a pullback from a two-year low hit on
Tuesday.
The British pound GBP=D3 bought $1.3285, retreating from
its highest level in almost a year due to a lack of progress in
trade negotiations between Britain and the European Union.
The greenback was quoted at 0.9096 Swiss franc CHF=EBS
Against the yen JPY=D3 , the dollar traded at 106.18.
Data due later on Friday is expected to show U.S. non-farm
payrolls grew by 1.4 million in August, which would be slower
than the 1.763 million jobs created in the previous month.
There are growing signs the labour market recovery from the
depths of the pandemic is faltering, with financial support from
the government virtually depleted.
The U.S. central bank last week overhauled its policy
framework to focus more on addressing shortfalls in employment
and less on inflation, which would allow it to keep rates lower
for longer periods, which is a negative for the dollar.
Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said on Thursday the
bank could promise to keep interest rates pinned near zero until
inflation reaches 2.5%, well above current low levels and
modestly above the inflation target of 2%. The dollar index =USD against a basket of six major
currencies was little changed in Asia on Friday at 92.759.
The dollar's downtrend will continue for at least another
three months due to the outlook for the Fed's monetary policy, a
Reuters poll of analysts showed on Friday. The Antipodean currencies initially fell slightly, tracking
the broader loss of investor confidence as a sell-off in U.S.
tech shares hit Asian stocks and a closely-watched measure of
market volatility .VIX hit a 10-week high.
However, the looming U.S. jobs data brought investors back
to a more measured posture.
The Australian dollar AUD=D3 steadied at $0.7275,
supported after local retail sales accelerated in July.
Across the Tasman Sea, the New Zealand dollar NZD=D3
erased losses to trade to $0.6712.

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