FOREX-Dollar decline continues as investors parse economic data, earnings

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

By Ritvik Carvalho
LONDON, July 13 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar edged lower on
Monday as investors looked to upcoming global economic data and
U.S. corporate earnings to gauge whether guarded optimism on the
economic outlook is justified.
The dollar ended its third week of losses on Friday as
investors bought into risk-sensitive currencies on bets that the
worst of the pandemic's sweeping impact was over.
The index that measures it against a basket of major
currencies had slipped 0.2% by midday in London to 96.481
=USD .
U.S. coronavirus cases surged over the weekend, as Florida
reported an increase of more than 15,000 new cases in 24 hours,
a record for any state, surpassing a peak hit in New York in
April. "We expect a broad dollar decline to continue, supporting
emerging market FX (despite local coronavirus issues) and see
euro/dollar at $1.15 in 3 months," Lars Sparresø Merklin, senior
FX analyst at Danske Bank, said in a note to clients.
"This continues to be a recurring observation, with markets
not being weighed down by the current host of problems with
coronavirus in EM and some U.S. states, not least the likely
still-weak current earnings."
Merklin added that the market's focus is the direction
rather than the level of economic activity, being supported by
fiscal and monetary policy.
Hopes for development of drugs and vaccines for the disease
are also supporting risk sentiment. So are economic indicators
that have so far shown a recovery from lockdowns.
U.S. consumer inflation figures for June are due on Tuesday
while retail sales, a key gauge of consumption, are released on
Thursday.
The U.S. corporate earning season starts this week,
providing another window to assess the scale of the damage, as
well as the recovery, from the pandemic.
Strategists at ING Bank said in a note that they see the
dollar's recent downtrend consolidating this week.
The euro rose 0.34% to $1.1338 EUR= , maintaining its slow
uptrend since late last month.
Looming large for the single currency this week is a
European Union summit on July 17-18, where leaders need to
bridge gaps on a long-term budget. Investors will also watch for
whether an agreement on a proposed 750 billion-euro recovery
fund for the bloc emerges.
The British pound lost 0.1% to $1.2605 GBP=D3 , off its
three-week high of $1.2668 touched last week. GBP/
The Australian dollar added 0.4% to $0.6975 AUD=D4 .
"We've seen a rapid rebound after a rapid decline in various
economic data. But looking ahead, the improvement could slow or
we could even seen a deterioration given the second round of
infections," said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief currency strategist
at Mizuho Securities.
A weekly gauge of consumer confidence in Australia has
dropped after a spike in infections in Melbourne and that could
be echoed in the United States, where the magnitude of the
outbreak is much larger, he noted.
The dollar gained against the safe-haven Japanese yen, to
107.10 yen, up 0.14% on the day. JPY=