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FOREX-Commodity rally unleashes Aussie as sterling braces for Brexit without trade deal

Published 12/11/2020, 02:12 PM
Updated 12/11/2020, 02:20 PM
© Reuters.
EUR/USD
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* Commodity currencies lead fresh round of dollar selling
* Sterling on edge heading in to crucial Brexit weekend
* Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E

By Tom Westbrook
SINGAPORE, Dec 11 (Reuters) - The dollar headed for a fourth
weekly loss in a row on Friday to languish in multi-year troughs
against other majors, and sterling snapped a five-week winning
streak after British and European leaders remained far apart on
a post-Brexit trade deal.
The greenback is pinned near a two-and-a-half year low
against a basket of currencies =USD as investors bet on better
returns in other currencies as the pandemic recovery takes hold.
On Friday, commodity currencies led the charge. Surging iron
ore prices lifted the Australian dollar AUD= to a
two-and-a-half year high of $0.7572 and a weekly gain of 1.8%.
AUD/
A nine-month peak for oil prices pushed the Canadian dollar
CAD= to its highest since 2018 and the kiwi NZD= broached 71
cents to hit $0.7112, also its strongest since 2018.
"The Aussie can do no wrong when the commodity price
backdrop just goes from strength to strength," said Ray Attrill,
head of foreign exchange at National Australia Bank in Sydney.
"Whether you want to look at it through the prism of ongoing
dollar weakness or the acceleration in key commodity
prices...it's hard to fight it," he said.
Australian dollar crosses also leapt to new peaks, with the
Aussie at a one-and-a-half year high against the yen AUDJPY= ,
a six-month peak on the euro EURAUD= , a three month top
against the yuan AUDCNH= and a three-week high on the kiwi
AUDNZD= .
The euro EUR= rose against the dollar to $1.2160 after the
European Central Bank delivered no surprises on Thursday and
regional leaders reached a compromise with Hungary and Poland
over a pandemic aid package. The common currency has soared 15% from three-year lows at
the height of the March markets panic and has added nearly 2% in
two weeks since finally breaking $1.20 after multiple attempts.

"With the strong bearish dollar dynamics in place, the trend
in EUR/USD is up," said Peter Krpata, a currency strategist at
Dutch bank ING. "We target $1.25 in 2021, with strong upside
risks to $1.30."

WEEKEND AT BRUSSELS
Sterling GBP= was an outlier ahead of a weekend of
brinkmanship, as British and EU negotiators have been told they
have until the end of Sunday to decide whether a trade deal is
possible. GBP/
It has slipped 0.9% this week as British and European
leaders have expressed doubts that they will be able to salvage
a deal.
At $1.3309, it is still priced for a deal that averts
tariffs and quotas being imposed on some $1 trillion in annual
trade from January 1.
But options market moves show traders bracing for chaos,
with one-week implied volatility GBPSWO= at a new eight-month
high and the premium of sterling puts to calls GBP1MRR= near
its highest since April as investors pay up for downside
protection.
Sterling has fallen three weeks in a row against the euro
EURGBP= and was steady at 91.31 pence in Asia after falling on
Thursday.
"With financial markets having bought sterling for months on
the assumption a Brexit trade deal would be completed, the risk
is that may have been a false hope," said Jeffrey Halley, senior
analyst at currency broker OANDA.
"I sense that the market is still clinging to that
conviction and has not yet materially thrown in the towel," he
said. "That could well change on Sunday, meaning that Monday
morning in Wellington, New Zealand, when currency markets open
in the wee hours, could be emotional."

========================================================
Currency bid prices at 1:44PM (544 GMT)
Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid
Previous Change
Session
Euro/Dollar EUR=EBS $1.2155 $1.2142 +0.10% +8.42% +1.2160 +1.2140
Dollar/Yen JPY=D3 104.0100 104.1850 -0.17% -4.24% +104.2650 +103.9400
Euro/Yen EURJPY= 126.41 126.51 -0.08% +3.66% +126.6100 +126.2800
Dollar/Swiss CHF=EBS 0.8856 0.8858 -0.02% -8.47% +0.8862 +0.8854
Sterling/Dollar GBP=D3 1.3310 1.3293 +0.12% +0.35% +1.3323 +1.3293
Dollar/Canadian CAD=D3 1.2728 1.2742 -0.11% -2.02% +1.2747 +1.2723
Aussie/Dollar AUD=D3 0.7558 0.7536 +0.30% +7.72% +0.7572 +0.7523
NZ NZD=D3 0.7097 0.7100 -0.06% +5.45% +0.7112 +0.7090
Dollar/Dollar


All spots FX=
Tokyo spots AFX=
Europe spots EFX=
Volatilities FXVOL=
Tokyo Forex market info from BOJ TKYFX

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