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FOREX-Commodity currencies wallow in oil gloom, dollar braces for election

Published 10/30/2020, 07:42 PM
Updated 10/30/2020, 07:50 PM
© Reuters.
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* Commodity currencies suffer as Brent drops over 10% on the
week
* Euro settles near 1-month low after ECB promises more
support
* Volatility gauges rising ahead of U.S. election
* Yen the safe-haven currency of choice if things get
chaotic
* Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E

By Marc Jones
LONDON, Oct 30 (Reuters) - The main commodity currencies
took another spill on Friday, capping what for some was set to
be their worst week since the March COVID collapse, while
volatility gauges climbed ahead of next week's U.S. election.
With Brent already down 10% for the week and still on the
slide, traders seemed ready to sell anything linked to crude.
Russia's rouble dropped 0.5% to near 80 per dollar
RUBUTSTN=MCX on course for a 4% weekly drop. Norway's crown
NOK= had managed to steady at 9.57 per dollar but only after a
near 3.5% weekly skid, while Canada's dollar CAD= was facing
its worst week since April.
The global tally of coronavirus cases rose by over 500,000
for the first time, France and Germany prepared to go back into
almost complete lockdown and the United States
notched a record 91,000 in new cases. The dollar paused its climb on the euro meanwhile as the
European single currency was crouched near a four-week low at
$1.1679 EUR=EBS . The European Central Bank said on Thursday
that it will ramp up its emergency money printing programmes in
December
"The oil currencies are really on edge because of a pretty
ugly fall in crude," said Saxo Bank's head of FX strategy John
Hardy.
"On the euro, you can peg it to the ECB - it is clear
something big is coming in December - but the music is sounding
very sour in the background with the coronavirus too," Hardy
said, adding there were questions over how much effective
"medicine" the ECB has left.
The looming lockdowns and ominous rises in COVID cases meant
the euro didn't even budge when euro zone third quarter GDP
data showed a stronger than expected 12.7% quarter-on-quarter
bounce from the near 12% slump it saw between April and June.
France, Italy and Spain had looked particularly encouraging
but consumer prices across the euro zone were still 0.3% lower
year-on-year, as expected by economists polled by Reuters.
In the United States, September personal consumption and
expenditure awaits later and the Chicago PMI.

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ELECTION FEVER
The dollar index was fractionally lower at 93.859 =USD but
within reach of Thursday's four-week high at 93.916, setting it
up for the biggest weekly gains since the end of September.
Still, uncertainty surrounding Tuesday's U.S. presidential
election and coronavirus fears dominate.
FX volatility gauges for euro-dollar EURSWO=FN and most
other major currencies are now at their highest since March. The
risk-sensitive Aussie dollar AUD=D3 did though manage to claw
to $0.7041, a fraction above a three-month low of $0.7002 marked
overnight.
"We opened up pretty risk-adverse but now things seem to
have settled down," said Societe Generale's Kit Juckes, though
he also flagged another heavy tumble for Turkey's lira
TRYTOM=D3= where worries of a full-blown currency crisis
remain. EMRG/FRX
If the next week's election result is contested by either
Donald Trump or Joe Biden, or the result divides the Senate and
the House of representatives between the two parties, safe-haven
currencies are almost certain to gain, Hardy added.
The greenback had edged lower against the Japanese yen to
104.30 yen JPY=EBS , after rallying overnight from a five-week
trough as it benefited from a rebound in U.S. treasury yields
and broad dollar buying.
"104 is a big level for dollar-yen," Hardy said. "Over a
particularly chaotic U.S. election scenario, it will be
interesting to see what happens."

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