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EM ASIA FX-Indonesia's rupiah steady ahead of policy decision

Published 04/14/2020, 01:57 PM
Updated 04/14/2020, 02:00 PM
© Reuters.
ID10YT=RR
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DXY
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* Bank Indonesia likely to stay on hold
* Policy decision expected around 0700 GMT
* China trade data beats expectations, support riskier bets
* Interactive graphic tracking global spread of coronavirus:
open
https://tmsnrt.rs/3aIRuz7 in an external browser

(Adds text, updates prices)
By Nikhil Nainan
April 14 (Reuters) - The Indonesian rupiah weighed on the
broader gains among Asian currencies on Tuesday ahead of a
policy decision, which is likely to be a tight-rope walk between
shielding the economy from the coronavirus and managing currency
volatility.
The rupiah, a favourite among some investors adopting a
carry trade strategy, suffered sharp losses in March and
February. Yields on the benchmark 10-year bonds ID10YT=RR
spiked during that time to a late-2018 peak.
Ahead of Tuesday's decision, the rupiah was little changed
after dipping 0.3% earlier, with a Reuters poll showing that a
small majority expect the benchmark policy rate to remain on
hold. "Not cutting will demonstrate a better understanding of
these priorities and that will probably be more reassuring for
the markets," said Julian Wee, an investment strategist at
Credit Suisse in Singapore.
"A rate cut at this point in time isn't the most useful
policy move given that disruption to the domestic economy is
still ongoing and external demand is weak," he said.
Meanwhile, a weaker dollar .DXY helped support sentiment
for riskier currencies after China's trade data painted a less
gloomy picture than feared as the economy slowly gets back up
and running.
The yuan CNY=CFXS advanced 0.1% to 7.046, while currencies
of other trade-reliant economies like the South Korean won
KRW=KFTC and Taiwan dollar TWD=TP gained 0.2% each.
While exports and imports in China slowed their declines in
March, a sure-footed recovery was still months away as global
demand remains under severe pressure. Markets in India were closed by a public holiday. On the day
the initial 21-day lockdown was set to end, the government
extended it to May 3. INDONESIA
While the $60 billion repo line that Bank Indonesia secured
from the U.S. Federal Reserve has supported rupiah since last
week, Credit Suisse's Wee says "maintaining the relative yield
level might help prevent outflows at the margin and reduce the
liquidity pressures stemming from the economic disruption."
A separate Reuters poll expects Indonesia to post a narrower
trade surplus in March, or about a third of what it posted in
February. Edward Ng, a Singapore-based portfolio manager at Nikko
Asset Management said it was "vital for Bank Indonesia to at
least reiterate their commitment to accommodative monetary
policy in the near term, in the event that they chose to pause
in the meeting today".

CURRENCIES VS U.S. DOLLAR AS AT 0459 GMT
Currency Latest bid Previous day Pct Move
Japan yen 107.690 107.76 +0.07
Sing dlr 1.414 1.4153 +0.06
Taiwan dlr 30.063 30.120 +0.19
Korean won 1215.100 1217.9 +0.23
Baht 32.710 32.73 +0.06
Peso 50.590 50.6 +0.02
Rupiah 15625.000 15620 -0.03
Ringgit 4.318 4.326 +0.19
Yuan 7.046 7.0530 +0.10

Change so far in 2020
Currency Latest bid End 2019 Pct Move
Japan yen 107.690 108.61 +0.85
Sing dlr 1.414 1.3444 -4.95
Taiwan dlr 30.063 30.106 +0.14
Korean won 1215.100 1156.40 -4.83
Baht 32.710 29.91 -8.56
Peso 50.590 50.65 +0.12
Rupiah 15625.000 13880 -11.17
Rupee 76.270 71.38 -6.41
Ringgit 4.318 4.0890 -5.30
Yuan 7.046 6.9632 -1.17

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