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World Bank sees strong Philippine economic rebound, COVID-19 resurgence a risk

Published 12/08/2020, 01:05 PM
Updated 12/08/2020, 01:10 PM
© Reuters

MANILA, Dec 8 (Reuters) - The World Bank expects Philippine
economic growth to bounce back in the next two years after a
worse-than-projected decline in output in 2020, as the country
gradually eases coronavirus curbs to allow for more business
activity.
The Southeast Asian economy is forecast to grow 5.9% next
year, the World Bank told a media briefing, stronger that its
earlier forecast of 5.3%, and gain more momentum in 2022, with
growth projected at 6.0%.
That should lead to a reduction in poverty, which is
estimated to have worsened this year as the pandemic may have
pushed 2.7 million more Filipinos into poverty, based on the
World Bank's poverty yardstick of living under $3.20 a day.
The Philippines, which before the pandemic was one of Asia's
fastest growing economies, is expected to post a
deeper-than-expected contraction of 8.1% this year, the World
Bank said, due to the lockdowns and damage caused by recent
typhoons.
While the World Bank's revised forecast was worse than its
previous estimate of a decline of 6.9%, it was slightly better
than the government's forecast of an 8.5%-9.5% GDP drop this
year. The World Bank said its forecasts for growth in 2021 were
not without risks. "The possible resurgence of COVID-19 is the
most significant downside risk to the outlook," said Rong Qian,
a senior World Bank economist.
With more than 440,000 infections and 8,500 deaths, the
Philippines has the second-highest coronavirus caseload in
Southeast Asia. The country aims to start vaccinating millions
of people against COVID-19 next year.
"Our baseline forecasts do not assume that a vaccine will be
rolled out very soon. If it is rolled out next year this will
constitute upside risk," Qian said.

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