* Developing Asia may post slowest growth in 22 years in
2020
* China's growth to slow sharply this year before rebound in
2021
* Economic losses from pandemic may be as much as $4.1
trillion
* Interactive graphic tracking global spread of coronavirus:
open
https://tmsnrt.rs/3aIRuz7 in an external browser
(Adds quotes from ADB economist, graphic link)
By Karen Lema
MANILA, April 3 (Reuters) - Developing Asia's already
slowing economic growth is set to weaken even more sharply this
year, hit by the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic before it
bounces back strongly next year, the Asian Develpoment Bank
(ADB) said on Friday.
The Manila-based lender said its baseline forecast called
for growth in developing Asia, a group of 45 economies that
includes China and India, to slow to 2.2% in 2020 from a
previous forecast of 5.2%, matching last year.
"This will be the lowest growth that developing Asia will
have seen in 22 years, or since the Asian financial crisis,"
said Abdul Abiad, director of ADB's macroeconomic research
division.
For 2021, the region is forecast to recover and grow 6.2%,
the ADB said in its Asian Development Outlook report.
It more than halved its growth estimate for China, where the
virus surfaced in December, to 2.3% this year from 5.8%
previously, citing dismal economic activity in the first two
months of the year.
But growth in the world's second-largest economy is expected
to rebound strongly to 7.3% in 2021, the ADB said.
After the health crisis brought China's economy to a virtual
halt in the first quarter, an ever-growing number of countries
and territories have reported a spike in infections and deaths,
leading to widespread travel bans and stay-at-home orders.
Measures to contain the contagious flu-like virus have
hammered the global economy, leading economists to believe the
world is heading towards a deep recession.
"This is a public health crisis and that's what needs to be
addressed first, before the situation normalises," Abiad told
Reuters. But in containing the pandemic, governments must ensure
"the most vulnerable are not left behind," he added.
Given the rapidly changing situation, the ADB said it sees
total world gross domestic product shrinking between 2.3% to
4.8%, higher than the estimates it made last month.
Yasuyuki Sawada, ADB's chief economist, said the upper end
of the range assumed the pandemic will last for six months and
spill over to the broader economy. He said the pandemic could
turn into a financial crisis if not contained swiftly.
He said the pandemic could "leave permanent scars" on the
global economy and cause a "retreat from globalisation."
Growth in South Asia's largest economy, India, is forecast
to remain subdued after a sharp slowdown in 2019, with expansion
for fiscal year 2020 seen slowing further to 4.0%, before
strengthening to 6.2% in fiscal 2021, the ADB said.
Southeast Asia's growth this year is expected track the
weakness in major trading partner China and slow to 1.0% from
4.4% last year, but regain momentum and finish next year with
growth of 4.7%.
"No economy in Asia will escape the pandemic unscathed,"
Sawada said in an online media briefing. "But strong underlying
economic fundamentals would mean, we don't see a repeat of a
long recovery from the Asian financial crisis or the global
financial crisis".
The ADB slightly raised its inflation forecast for
developing Asia to 3.2% from 3.1% previously, but declining food
prices in the latter part of the year should lead to a slower
inflation rate of 2.3% next year.
GDP GROWTH pct
2018 2019 2020 2020 2021
DEC APRIL
Central Asia 4.4 4.9 4.5 2.8 4.2
East Asia 6.1 5.4 5.2 2.0 6.5
China 6.7 6.1 5.8 2.3 7.3
South Asia 6.1 5.1 6.1 4.1 6.0
India 6.1 5.0 6.5 4.0 6.2
SEast Asia 5.1 4.4 4.7 1.0 4.7
Indonesia 5.2 5.0 5.2 2.5 5.0
Malaysia 4.7 4.3 4.7 0.5 5.5
Myanmar 6.4 6.8 n/a 4.2 6.8
Philippines 6.2 5.9 6.2 2.0 6.5
Singapore 3.4 0.7 1.2 0.2 2.0
Thailand 4.2 2.4 3 -4.8 2.5
Vietnam 7.1 7.0 6.8 4.8 6.8
The Pacific 0.4 3.8 2.5 -0.3 2.7
Developing 5.9 5.2 5.2 2.2 6.2
Asia
INFLATION, pct
2018 2019 2020 2020 2021
DEC APRIL APRIL
Central Asia 8.2 7.5 7.3 7.6 6.3
East Asia 2.0 2.6 2.7 3.2 1.8
China 2.1 2.9 3 3.6 1.9
South Asia 3.7 4.9 4.8 4.1 4.4
India 3.4 4.7 3.8 3.0 3.8
SEast Asia 2.6 2.1 2.6 1.9 2.2
Indonesia 3.2 2.8 3.3 3.0 2.8
Malaysia 1.0 0.7 2 1.0 1.3
Myanmar 5.9 8.6 n/a 7.5 7.5
Philippines 5.2 2.5 3 2.2 2.4
Singapore 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.7 1.3
Thailand 1.1 0.7 1 -0.9 0.4
Vietnam 3.5 2.8 3.5 3.3 3.5
The Pacific 4.3 3.0 3.3 2.7 3.8
Developing 2.5 2.9 3.1 3.2 2.3
Asia
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Coronavirus pandemic to slow growth in developing Asia https://reut.rs/2w8HNuc
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(Editing by Clarence Fernandez and Jacqueline Wong)