MANILA, Sept 25 (Reuters) - Escalating trade tensions
between the United States and China have darkened the outlook
for developing Asia, with the region expected to grow slower
than previously predicted this year and next, the Asian
Development Bank said on Wednesday.
Developing Asia, a group of 45 countries across Asia and the
Pacific, will likely grow 5.4% this year and 5.5% next year,
down from the 5.7% and 5.6% growth forecast in July, the ADB
said in an update to its Asian Development Outlook report.
Growth in the region was 5.9% in 2018.
"The People's Republic of China–U.S. trade conflict could
well persist into 2020, while major global economies may
struggle even more than we currently anticipate," Yasuyuki
Sawada, ADB's chief economist, said in a statement.
The dispute between the world's two largest economies has
dragged on for well over a year, with both adding tariffs worth
billions of dollars on each others goods. High level talks
between the two are scheduled for early October. China's economy will probably grow 6.2% this year, the ADB
said, weaker than its 6.3% projection in July. Growth in the
Chinese mainlandis projected to cool further to 6.0% in 2020.
China is targeting 6.0% to 6.5% growth in 2019.
Along with weakening trade momentum, the Manila-based lender
also sees declining investment as a major risk to the region's
growth prospects.
By sub-regions, South Asia will remain the fastest growing
in Asia Pacific, even after the ADB trimmed its 2019 outlook to
6.2% from 6.6% as it also slashed its growth estimate for India
to 6.5% from 7.0%. ADB maintained India's 7.2% growth projection
for next year.
Southeast Asia is also expected to end 2019 on a weaker
note, with growth likely to slow to 4.5% compared with a
previous forecast of 4.8% and from last year's 5.1% pace. Growth
next year is seen picking up to 4.7%, but still lower than the
ADB's 4.9% estimate in July.
Developing Asia will also have to deal with slightly higher
prices due to rising food costs, the ADB said. It raised its
2019 and 2020 inflation forecasts for the region to 2.7% from
2.6% earlier.
GDP GROWTH,
pct
2018 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020
APRIL JULY SEPT APRIL JULY SEPT
Central 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.3
Asia
East Asia 6.0 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4
China 6.6 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0
South Asia 6.6 6.8 6.6 6.2 6.9 6.7 6.7
India 6.8 7.2 7.0 6.5 7.3 7.2 7.2
SEast Asia 5.1 4.9 4.8 4.5 5.0 4.9 4.7
Indonesia 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.3 5.3 5.2
Malaysia 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.7
Myanmar 6.8 6.6 n/a 6.6 6.8 n/a 6.8
Philippines 6.2 6.4 6.2 6.0 6.4 6.4 6.2
Singapore 3.1 2.6 2.4 0.7 2.6 2.5 1.4
Thailand 4.1 3.9 3.5 3.0 3.7 3.6 3.2
Vietnam 7.1 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.7
The Pacific 0.4 3.5 3.5 4.2 3.2 3.2 2.6
Developing 5.9 5.7 5.7 5.4 5.6 5.6 5.5
Asia
INFLATION,
pct
2018 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020
APRIL JULY SEPT APRIL JULY SEPT
Central 8.3 7.8 8.1 8.0 7.2 7.1 7.4
Asia
East Asia 2.0 1.8 2.1 2.3 1.8 1.9 2.1
China 2.1 1.9 2.3 2.6 1.8 2.0 2.2
South Asia 3.6 4.7 4.5 4.0 4.9 5.1 4.9
India 3.4 4.3 4.1 3.5 4.6 4.4 4.0
SEast Asia 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.7 2.7 2.6
Indonesia 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3
Malaysia 1.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 2.7 2.0 2.0
Myanmar 5.9 6.8 n/a 8.0 7.5 n/a 7.5
Philippines 5.2 3.8 3.0 2.6 3.5 3.5 3.0
Singapore 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9
Thailand 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Vietnam 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.0 3.8 3.8 3.5
The Pacific 4.2 3.7 3.6 3.4 4.0 3.9 3.4
Developing 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.7
Asia