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FOREX-Dollar held back on virus hopes, yuan down after rate cut

Published 04/15/2020, 02:26 PM
Updated 04/15/2020, 02:30 PM
© Reuters.

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E
* Investors look for peak in coronavirus pandemic
* Risk sentiment drives dollar decline

By Stanley White
TOKYO, April 15 (Reuters) - The dollar nursed losses on
Wednesday as investors cautiously stepped into riskier
currencies after U.S. President Donald Trump edged toward
rolling back some restrictions put in place to contain the
coronavirus outbreak.
The greenback also remains under pressure following heavy
measures by the Federal Reserve to boost dollar supply, though
analysts say it is too early for a full-scale retreat from
safe-havens with the public health threat not yet fully
contained.
The yuan eased after the People's Bank of China nudged its
guidance range for the currency slightly lower and cut the
interest rate on its medium-term funding for financial
institutions to a record low.
This move is expected to lead to a cut in the benchmark rate
next week as the central bank tries to limit the economic cost
of the pandemic.
"There's been a flood of money from the Fed, which is the
backdrop behind market moves," said Michael McCarthy, chief
market strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney.
"Trump has made it clear he wants to lift restrictions, and
this is what the market wants to hear, but we are nowhere near
the all-clear when it comes to this virus."
The dollar fell 0.16% to 107.05 yen JPY=EBS on Wednesday,
close to its lowest level in a month, and also briefly slipped
to $1.0994 per euro EUR=EBS , the weakest in two weeks.
But against sterling GBP=D3 , the dollar managed to snap
two days of losses and advanced to $1.2588.
Trump on Tuesday said he is close to completing a plan to
end the coronavirus shutdown and would speak with governors of
all 50 states to authorise them to open their economies in a
timely manner. Daily fatalities in the United States from the coronavirus
have fallen sharply, and states are making plans to get
businesses open again. Against the safe-haven Swiss franc CHF=EBS , the dollar
traded near a two-week low of 0.9597 in another sign of
improving risk sentiment.
However, many analysts remain cautious after Trump's top
infectious disease adviser said the U.S. president's target for
restarting the economy by May 1 was "overly optimistic."
Another factor weighing on the dollar is the large amount of
greenback liquidity provisions, credit backstops, and monetary
easing the U.S. central bank has unleashed in the past month to
contain the economic damage caused by the pandemic.
The Fed began a massive new lending programme on Tuesday,
and the cumulative impact of measures it has taken so far has
unleashed a flood of dollars. The U.S. currency faces a further test later Wednesday with
the release of retail sales and industrial production, which is
likely to provide more evidence of the economic costs of
lockdowns.


The global economy is expected to shrink by 3.0% this year
in a stunning coronavirus-driven collapse, marking the steepest
downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s, the
International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday.
In the onshore market, the yuan CNY=CFXS fell slightly to
7.0560 per dollar.
China's central bank is expected on April 20 to lower the
country's benchmark loan prime rate to bring down financing
costs for companies hit by the pandemic. China will release
gross domestic product for the first quarter on Friday.
The coronavirus first emerged late last year in the central
Chinese city of Wuhan. China's economy is only just starting to
restart its engines following draconian restrictions used to
limit its spread.
Elsewhere in currencies, the Australian dollar AUD=D3
slumped 0.9% to $0.6384, pulling back from a five-week high as
some investors booked profits on a recent rally following data
showing Australian consumer sentiment collapsed in April to a
30-year low. Across the Tasman Sea, the New Zealand dollar NZD=D3 also
declined by 0.9% to $0.6052.
Both currencies are often traded as proxies for risk because
of their close links to China's economy and the global
commodities trade.

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