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FOREX-Dollar dented as yields dive on recovery worries

Published 08/05/2020, 09:00 AM
Updated 08/05/2020, 09:10 AM
GBP/USD
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USD/JPY
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US10YT=X
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* Euro repels dollar bounce
* Yen firm, gold soaring as U.S. yields crater
* Kiwi catches boost from solid labour data
* Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E

By Tom Westbrook
SINGAPORE, Aug 5 (Reuters) - The dollar was under pressure
on Wednesday from a towering euro and crumbling U.S. yields, as
the latest coronavirus relief package got bogged down in
Congress and investors braced for a bumpy ride to economic
repair.
A hardening perception that the U.S. rebound is lagging
Europe has buttressed the common currency just below a two-year
high, helping it repel a bounce in the dollar this week.
The euro EUR=EBS last sat at $1.1808, after twice testing
support around $1.17, as focus turns to U.S. private jobs data
due later in the day and the Washington stalemate.
The Japanese yen JPY= rose to 105.66 per dollar and gold
soared above $2,000 an ounce as the bond market's dim view of
the U.S. recovery sent real yields further into negative
territory and nominal yields close to record lows. US/
"Failure to agree a fiscal package has pushed back the U.S.
dollar," said Imre Speizer, FX analyst at Westpac in Auckland.
"So if they agree something in the next few days, see the
dollar bouncing back," he said. "But even if we get another leg
to it, I think it is still dollar weakness for the rest of the
year."
White House negotiators on Tuesday vowed to work "around the
clock" with congressional Democrats to try to reach a deal on
coronavirus relief by the end of this week. But lawmakers have allowed a $600-a-week unemployment
benefit to lapse while they remain at loggerheads and the two
sides still seem far apart. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin
warned that "we're not going anywhere close" to the $3.4
trillion that Democrats have been seeking.
The Australian and New Zealand dollars edged ahead, to climb
back towards multi-month highs hit last week. The kiwi NZD=D3
also won support from an unexpected fall in unemployment and was
last 0.3% stronger at $0.6639. The Aussie AUD=D3 rose 0.2% to $0.7172 and the pound
GBP= , which has shrugged off the dollar's bounce this week,
was steady at $1.3080.

DIVERGENCE
The dollar has been sliding since March, as central bank
liquidity measures and calmer markets have eased demand for the
world's reserve currency.
But its prime antagonist in recent weeks has been the euro,
which in July posted its best month in almost 10 years against
the greenback, as a Europe-wide fiscal package convinced
investors that the bloc can manage an economic rebound.
Net long bets on the euro hit a record high last week as low
yields dulled the dollar's allure and many in the market are
convinced the common currency has further to run.
The yield on inflation-protected 10-year U.S. debt
USTIPCMT10Y=RR is at a record low of -1.05% and nominal
10-year yields US10YT=RR sit near their lowest since the
height of the March panic, at 0.5118%.
Investors are already expecting a slowdown in U.S. hiring
from private payrolls data due around 1215 GMT. But a
disappointment would bode ill for broader payroll data due on
Friday and underscore the apparent divergence between Europe and
the United States.
Analysts at ING have also noted that equity investors have
yet to really buy in to the European recovery story - and say a
pile-in could provide even more support to the currency.
"Buy-side surveys suggest that investors are still heavily
overweight U.S. equities, especially tech stocks, and are minded
to rotate into the Eurozone and see the euro as cheap," said
ING's global head of markets Chris Turner.
"If that rotation comes to pass ... then euro/dollar may be
a $1.25 story after all."

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