* Developing Asia seen to post slowest growth in 22 yrs in
2020
* China's growth to slow sharply this year before rebound in
2021
* Economic losses from pandemic could reach as much as $4.1
trln
By Karen Lema
MANILA, April 3 (Reuters) - Developing Asia's
already-slowing growth is set to weaken sharply this year, hit
by the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic before it bounces
back strongly next year, the Asian Develpoment Bank (ADB) said
on Friday.
The Manila-based lender said its baseline forecast called
for growth in developing Asia, a group of 45 economies that
includes China and India, to slow to 2.2% in 2020 from a
previous forecast of 5.2%, matching last year.
"This will be the lowest growth that developing Asia will
have seen in 22 years, or since the Asian financial crisis,"
said Abdul Abiad, director of ADB's macroeconomic research
division.
For 2021, the region is forecast to recover and grow 6.2%,
the ADB said in its Asian Development Outlook report.
It substantially cut its growth estimate for China, where
the virus surfaced in December, to 2.3% this year from 5.8%
previously, citing dismal economic activity in the first two
months of the year.
But growth in the world's second largest economy is expected
to rebound strongly to 7.3% in 2021, the ADB said.
After an initial outbreak brought China to a virtual halt
last month, an ever-growing number of countries and territories
have reported a spike in infections and deaths, causing entire
regions to be placed on lockdown.
Measures to contain the highly contagious virus, which
causes a respiratory illness called COVID-19, have hammered the
global economy, leading economists to believe the world is
heading towards a deep recession.
"This is a public health crisis and that's what needs to be
addressed first, before the situation normalises," Abiad told
Reuters. But in containing the pandemic, he added, governments
must ensure "the most vulnerable are not left behind".
Given the rapidly changing situation, the ADB raised its
estimate of the global cost of the "worst pandemic in a century"
to $2.0 trillion to $4.1 trillion, for a drop of 2.3% to 4.8% in
world gross domestic product (GDP). Last month, it estimated
economic losses to reach between $77 billion to $347 billion.
Growth in south Asia's largest economy, India, is forecast
to remain subdued after a sharp slowdown in 2019, with expansion
for fiscal year 2020 seen slowing further to 4.0%, before
strengthening to 6.2% in fiscal 2021, the ADB said.
Southeast Asia's growth this year is expected track the
weakness in major trading partner China and slow to 1.0% from
4.4% last year, but regain momentum and finish next year with
growth of 4.7%.
The ADB slightly raised its inflation forecast for
developing Asia to 3.2% from 3.1% previously, but declining food
prices in the latter part of the year should lead to a slower
inflation rate of 2.3% next year.
GDP GROWTH pct
2018 2019 2020 2020 2021
DEC APRIL
Central Asia 4.4 4.9 4.5 2.8 4.2
East Asia 6.1 5.4 5.2 2.0 6.5
China 6.7 6.1 5.8 2.3 7.3
South Asia 6.1 5.1 6.1 4.1 6.0
India 6.1 5.0 6.5 4.0 6.2
SEast Asia 5.1 4.4 4.7 1.0 4.7
Indonesia 5.2 5.0 5.2 2.5 5.0
Malaysia 4.7 4.3 4.7 0.5 5.5
Myanmar 6.4 6.8 n/a 4.2 6.8
Philippines 6.2 5.9 6.2 2.0 6.5
Singapore 3.4 0.7 1.2 0.2 2.0
Thailand 4.2 2.4 3 -4.8 2.5
Vietnam 7.1 7.0 6.8 4.8 6.8
The Pacific 0.4 3.8 2.5 -0.3 2.7
Developing 5.9 5.2 5.2 2.2 6.2
Asia
INFLATION, pct
2018 2019 2020 2020 2021
DEC APRIL APRIL
Central Asia 8.2 7.5 7.3 7.6 6.3
East Asia 2.0 2.6 2.7 3.2 1.8
China 2.1 2.9 3 3.6 1.9
South Asia 3.7 4.9 4.8 4.1 4.4
India 3.4 4.7 3.8 3.0 3.8
SEast Asia 2.6 2.1 2.6 1.9 2.2
Indonesia 3.2 2.8 3.3 3.0 2.8
Malaysia 1.0 0.7 2 1.0 1.3
Myanmar 5.9 8.6 n/a 7.5 7.5
Philippines 5.2 2.5 3 2.2 2.4
Singapore 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.7 1.3
Thailand 1.1 0.7 1 -0.9 0.4
Vietnam 3.5 2.8 3.5 3.3 3.5
The Pacific 4.3 3.0 3.3 2.7 3.8
Developing 2.5 2.9 3.1 3.2 2.3
Asia