MANILA, May 15 (Reuters) - Global economic losses caused by
the coronavirus pandemic could be between $5.8 trillion and $8.8
trillion this year, the Asian Development Bank said on Friday,
more than double its earlier estimates as containment measures
paralyse economies.
The ADB's forecast, equal to 6.4% to 9.7% of global gross
domestic product, was worse than projections in April when it
said the global economy could suffer between $2.0 trillion and
$4.1 trillion in losses, depending on how long containment
measures were in place.
"This new analysis presents a broad picture of the very
significant potential economic impact of COVID-19," said ADB
Chief Economist Yasuyuki Sawada. "It also highlights the
important role policy interventions can play to help mitigate
damage to economies."
The ADB said the upper end of the range assumed curbs on
movement and businesses lasting six months, while the bottom end
assumed they would last three months.
After the health crisis brought the economy of China, where
the virus surfaced in December, to a virtual halt in the first
quarter, several countries and territories have reported a rise
in infections and deaths, leading to widespread travel bans and
stay-at-home orders.
Nearly 300,000 people worldwide have died from complications
from the virus, which has infected more than 4.3 million people.
Measures to contain the spread could inflict $1.7 trillion
to $2.5 trillion in economic losses in Asia, and between $1.1
trillion and $1.6 trillion in China, the ADB said.
Travel restrictions and lockdowns will likely cut global
trade by $1.7 trillion to $2.6 trillion and put between 158
million and 242 million people out of work, the ADB said.
Global central banks have moved aggressively with sweeping
emergency rate cuts and fiscal stimulus measures to help combat
the pandemic that jolted financial markets and stoked fears of a
deep global recession.