On Monday, Wolfe Research adjusted its price target on TFI International (NYSE:TFII) shares, a North American transportation and logistics company. The firm's analyst revised the price target downward to $171.00 from the previous $176.00 while sustaining an Outperform rating on the stock.
TFI International's shares concluded the week with a 2% decline on Friday, showing more resilience than some of its sector counterparts such as XPO Logistics (NYSE:XPO), ArcBest (NASDAQ:ARCB), Old Dominion Freight (NASDAQ:ODFL) Line, and Saia (NASDAQ:SAIA), which saw more significant losses. Despite this, TFI International did not keep pace with the S&P 500's 1% gain on the same day.
Year-to-date (YTD), the company's stock has increased by 1%, aligning with the performance of the LTL (Less-than-Truckload) Index and surpassing the Wolfe Research Transport Index, which has dipped by 2% YTD. However, it still trails behind the S&P 500's 7% rise for the year.
The price target revision follows TFI International's first-quarter earnings, which fell short of Wolfe Research's projections. Consequently, the analyst has reduced the second-quarter earnings per share (EPS) estimate by $0.12 to $1.57, positioning it 13% below the previous consensus. Additionally, the calendar year 2024 EPS estimate has been decreased by $0.35 to $6.50, now 10% under the prior consensus and 4% below TFI International's own guidance range midpoint of $6.75 to $7.00.
Looking further ahead, the calendar year 2025 EPS forecast has been trimmed by 3% to $9.00, which is 2% lower than the prior consensus. Currently, TFI International's valuation stands at 21 times the firm's calendar year 2024 EPS estimate and 15 times the calendar year 2025 EPS estimate. In comparison, its truckload (TL) peers and the asset-light forwarders are trading at higher multiples.
In light of the reduced EPS estimates, Wolfe Research has also revised its year-end 2024 target price for TFI International to $158, down from the former target of $176. Despite these adjustments, the analyst reaffirms the Outperform rating, suggesting that the stock's valuation remains attractive relative to its industry peers.
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