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ULTA maintains buy rating; DA Davidson sees growth potential

Published 10/16/2024, 10:06 PM
ULTA
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DA Davidson confirmed its Buy rating and $435.00 price target for ULTA Beauty (NASDAQ: ULTA), following the company's announcement of new long-term financial goals set to commence in 2026. ULTA Beauty shared these targets during their analyst day, outlining expectations for net sales growth between 4%-6%, mid-single-digit growth in operating profit, operating margins of 12.0%, and low-double digit growth in earnings per share (EPS).

The company's strategy includes plans to accelerate store openings and expand its repurchase program. Despite these growth initiatives, 2025 is projected to be a transitional year for ULTA Beauty. Analyst projections for 2026 are currently at the upper end of the company's long-term objectives, which may lead to a downward adjustment in consensus estimates.

The market's response to ULTA Beauty's long-term plan is expected to be mixed at the outset. Shares are anticipated to experience a slight decline due to the potential recalibration of consensus estimates. This comes despite the company maintaining its 2024 guidance and announcing plans to increase store growth and buyback programs.

DA Davidson's stance remains positive, suggesting that the lowering of estimates in the coming years could actually set a more achievable target for ULTA Beauty to exceed. The firm emphasizes that while immediate market reactions might reflect a cautious outlook, the revised estimates could ultimately benefit the company's stock performance in the long term.

ULTA Beauty has made significant announcements regarding its financial targets and growth strategy. The company has set new long-term financial goals, adjusting its annual sales growth target to 4-6% and establishing a 12.0% EBIT margin for Fiscal Year 2026 and beyond.

The company has also revealed ambitious plans to open over 200 new stores within the next three years, aiming to surpass 1,800 locations in the long term. Additionally, ULTA Beauty announced a new $3 billion share repurchase authorization, replacing its previous program initiated in March 2024.

Analyst notes reveal varied perspectives on ULTA Beauty's position. Citi has maintained a Neutral rating, while Evercore ISI and Baird have maintained an Outperform rating. Piper Sandler and TD Cowen have expressed caution due to potential challenges, with TD Cowen reducing its price target to $390.

InvestingPro Insights

ULTA Beauty's financial health and market position offer additional context to the company's long-term goals and DA Davidson's Buy rating. According to InvestingPro data, ULTA's market capitalization stands at $16.8 billion, with a P/E ratio of 14.7, indicating a relatively moderate valuation compared to its earnings. The company's revenue for the last twelve months reached $11.32 billion, with a modest growth of 5.51%.

InvestingPro Tips highlight ULTA's financial stability, noting that "Liquid assets exceed short term obligations" and the company "Operates with a moderate level of debt." These factors support ULTA's ability to fund its expansion plans and share repurchase program. Additionally, the tip that "Management has been aggressively buying back shares" aligns with the company's announced plans to increase its buyback program.

While ULTA is "Trading at a high Price / Book multiple" of 7.16, its profitability remains strong. The company boasts a gross profit margin of 42.52% and an operating income margin of 13.91% for the last twelve months, demonstrating efficient operations that could support its long-term financial goals.

For investors seeking more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers 6 additional tips for ULTA Beauty, providing deeper insights into the company's financial outlook and market position.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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