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Sarepta stock a 'buy' as Jefferies forecasts $4B peak sales from DMD gene therapy

EditorEmilio Ghigini
Published 10/21/2024, 04:28 PM
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On Monday, Sarepta Therapeutics (NASDAQ:SRPT) stock received a positive outlook from Jefferies, as the firm initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a price target of $165.00. The new rating is based on the potential of Sarepta's gene therapy, Elevidys, following its recent label expansion in Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD).

Jefferies' coverage notes indicate that physician feedback suggests Elevidys has the potential to surpass consensus revenue estimates of $2.1 billion by 2025. The therapy is expected to generate substantial cash flows through 2029.

The analyst's valuation model projects over $4 billion in peak sales for DMD treatments, including more than $3 billion from Elevidys and an additional $1 billion from the company's PMO (phosphorodiamidate morpholino oligomer) base business.

The firm's valuation of Sarepta includes a $12 billion assessment, which compares favorably to the current market capitalization of over $11 billion. The optimism is further bolstered by the possibility of even higher peak sales for Elevidys, which could range between $3 billion and $4 billion.

Additional factors contributing to this positive valuation include potential successes in the company's pipeline, such as next-generation PPMO therapies and treatments for limb-girdle muscular dystrophy (LGMD), as well as the prospect of beneficial business development deals.

Jefferies' analysis concludes with a strong endorsement of Sarepta's market position and future prospects, leading to the initiation of a Buy rating and a price target of $165.00. This target reflects the firm's confidence in the company's gene therapy offerings and its strategic initiatives moving forward.

In other recent news, Sarepta Therapeutics has been making significant strides in its financial performance. The company reported a substantial 51% year-over-year increase in its net product revenue for Q2 2024, reaching approximately $361 million. This growth is primarily attributed to the broad approval of its gene therapy, Elevidys.

Sarepta Therapeutics is also anticipating a significant revenue climb in Q4 2024, with expectations for net product revenue to fall between $2.9 billion and $3.1 billion for 2025.

Barclays, Raymond James, Mizuho Securities, BMO Capital Markets, and TD Cowen have all maintained positive ratings for the company. Barclays reiterated its Overweight rating, while Raymond James and Mizuho Securities resumed and reiterated their Outperform ratings respectively. BMO Capital and TD Cowen also reiterated their Outperform and Buy ratings respectively.

In terms of company developments, Sarepta Therapeutics recently appointed Deirdre P. Connelly, a veteran of the pharmaceutical industry, to its Board of Directors. The company is also making progress with its treatment for limb-girdle muscular dystrophy (LGMD), which is currently advancing through Phase 3 trials.

These recent developments reflect Sarepta Therapeutics' commitment to patient safety, education, and access to treatment, as well as its strategic focus on serving patients with rare diseases and building value for its investors.

InvestingPro Insights

Sarepta Therapeutics' (NASDAQ:SRPT) strong market position and future prospects, as highlighted by Jefferies' analysis, are further supported by recent financial data and insights from InvestingPro. The company's revenue growth has been impressive, with a 49.98% increase over the last twelve months as of Q2 2024, reaching $1.5 billion. This aligns with Jefferies' optimistic projections for Elevidys and other DMD treatments.

InvestingPro Tips suggest that Sarepta's net income is expected to grow this year, which could be attributed to the anticipated success of Elevidys and the company's expanding product portfolio. Additionally, the company operates with a moderate level of debt, potentially providing financial flexibility for future research and development initiatives.

It's worth noting that Sarepta is trading at high earnings and valuation multiples, including a P/E ratio of 258.06. This could indicate that investors are pricing in significant future growth, in line with Jefferies' bullish outlook on the company's gene therapy potential.

For investors seeking a more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers 12 additional tips for Sarepta Therapeutics, providing a deeper understanding of the company's financial health and market position.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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