On Thursday, Oppenheimer initiated coverage on Terns Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: TERN) stock with an Outperform rating and set a price target of $17.00. The firm's analyst expressed confidence in the company's clinical pipeline, particularly highlighting two lead assets, TERN-701 for chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) and TERN-601 for obesity.
The analyst pointed out that TERN-701 is a tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI), which could offer advantages in dosing and tolerability over existing treatments such as Novartis (SIX:NOVN)'s asciminib. The consensus, according to the analyst, undervalues TERN's potential to gain a significant share of the CML market. The anticipation of interim Phase 1 data for TERN-701 in December 2024 is expected to drive considerable upside.
Furthermore, the growing market for CML treatments, which is projected to reach approximately 230,000 patients by 2040, presents a substantial opportunity for TERN-701. The analyst's optimism is also bolstered by the recent positive Phase 1 data for TERN-601, an oral GLP-1R agonist. This data supports the initiation of a Phase 2 trial slated for 2025.
Oppenheimer forecasts a peak risk-adjusted total revenue of around $2.3 billion in 2038 for Terns Pharmaceuticals. This revenue projection is a significant factor in the establishment of the $17 price target. The analyst's report reflects a substantial potential upside of approximately 150% from the current levels.
InvestingPro Insights
Adding to Oppenheimer's optimistic outlook on Terns Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: TERN), recent data from InvestingPro provides additional context for investors. Despite the company's promising clinical pipeline, InvestingPro Tips highlight that TERN is not currently profitable and suffers from weak gross profit margins. This aligns with the company's development stage status, as it focuses on advancing its drug candidates rather than generating immediate profits.
Interestingly, TERN's stock has shown a significant price uptick over the last six months, with InvestingPro data reporting a 36.44% total return. This surge could be attributed to growing investor confidence in the company's potential, particularly in light of the positive Phase 1 data for TERN-601 mentioned in the article.
It's worth noting that analysts predict TERN will not be profitable this year, which is consistent with the company's current focus on research and development. However, the stock's price-to-book ratio of 2.66 suggests that investors are willing to pay a premium for the company's assets, possibly due to the perceived value of its drug pipeline.
For investors seeking a more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers 5 additional tips for TERN, providing a deeper understanding of the company's financial position and market performance.
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