On Thursday, Mizuho Securities updated its stance on Hilton Worldwide (NYSE:HLT) shares, increasing the price target to $243 from $237, while retaining an Outperform rating for the hotel giant. This adjustment follows Hilton's report of an adjusted EBITDA of $904 million, surpassing both the analyst's projection of $881 million and the market consensus of $886 million, as well as the company's own guidance range of $875 million to $890 million.
Hilton's net unit growth (NUG) for the year outperformed expectations, showing a 7.8% year-over-year increase compared to the anticipated 7.3% by Mizuho and 7.25% by the street. This growth was partially attributed to robust conversion activity within the company.
Despite a slight decrease in the upper end of its full-year revenue per available room (RevPAR) guidance from 2-3% to 2-2.5%, Hilton maintained its full-year adjusted EBITDA outlook of $3,375 million to $3,405 million, with fourth-quarter RevPAR expected to fall between 2.0-2.5%.
The company experienced particularly strong demand in Europe, with a RevPAR increase of 7.3%, and in group bookings, which rose by 5%. Business transient and leisure travel segments also showed positive growth, with increases of 2% and 1.8% respectively, once adjusted for calendar variances. Conversely, China's market presented challenges, with a 9% decline in RevPAR year-over-year.
In light of these results, Mizuho has also revised its 2025 EBITDA estimate for Hilton to $3,600 million, up from the previous forecast of $3,554 million. The firm's confidence in Hilton's performance and continued growth prospects is reflected in the maintained Outperform rating and the raised future EBITDA expectations.
In other recent news, Hilton Worldwide has been the focus of several notable updates. Truist Securities has revised its financial outlook for the company, raising the price target to $220 while maintaining a Hold rating. This adjustment comes after a detailed analysis of Hilton's anticipated financial performance, with the firm updating its 2024 and 2025 Adjusted EBITDA and EPS estimates.
Deutsche Bank also adjusted its outlook, increasing Hilton's price target to $200 and maintaining a Hold rating, while highlighting a deceleration in Hilton's Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR) but noting the company's strong unit growth outlook.
In terms of company updates, Hilton's recent Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call revealed strong performance and an optimistic outlook. The company reported record hotel openings, a significant milestone in its Hilton Honors program, and a system-wide RevPAR increase. Hilton executives also expressed confidence in achieving the 2025 EBITDA target of $3.69 billion.
These developments follow a series of financial forecasts and performance reviews by Truist Securities and Deutsche Bank. The updated price targets and financial outlooks, along with the company's recent earnings call, provide recent insights into Hilton's performance and future expectations.
InvestingPro Insights
Hilton Worldwide's recent performance aligns with several key metrics and insights from InvestingPro. The company's impressive gross profit margin of 76.04% for the last twelve months as of Q3 2024 underscores its operational efficiency, supporting Mizuho's positive outlook. This is further reinforced by an InvestingPro Tip highlighting Hilton's "impressive gross profit margins."
The strong unit growth and robust conversion activity mentioned in the article are reflected in Hilton's revenue growth of 8.38% over the last twelve months. Additionally, the company's operating income margin of 54.16% for the same period demonstrates its ability to effectively manage costs while expanding.
InvestingPro data shows that Hilton is trading near its 52-week high, with a price that is 97.29% of its 52-week high. This aligns with the company's strong performance and Mizuho's increased price target. An InvestingPro Tip also notes that Hilton has shown a "high return over the last year," with a one-year price total return of 56.51% as of the latest data.
For investors seeking a more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers 14 additional tips for Hilton Worldwide, providing a deeper understanding of the company's financial health and market position.
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