Mizuho Securities has adjusted its price target for Apellis Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:APLS), a biopharmaceutical company, to $42.00 from the previous $40.00 while maintaining a Neutral rating on the stock.
This adjustment comes in response to Apellis announcing positive Phase 3 VALIANT study results for its drug pegcetacoplan, marketed as Empaveli, in treating two rare kidney diseases: C3 glomerulopathy (C3G) and primary immune complex membranoproliferative glomerulonephritis (IC-MPGN).
The VALIANT study data, which were revealed last week, have been described as impressive by the firm. As a result, Mizuho has increased its probability of success assumption for pegcetacoplan in C3G/IC-MPGN to 85%, up from the previous 65%. This heightened confidence in the drug's prospects stems from the positive clinical trial outcomes.
Despite the promising data, Mizuho projects that the revenue opportunity for pegcetacoplan in these indications is relatively modest, estimating peak sales in the United States to reach approximately $200 million. Consequently, the impact on the firm's discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation model is somewhat limited, leading to a slight increase in the price target.
Mizuho's analyst also noted the broader market context for Apellis Pharmaceuticals, mentioning limited visibility on the significant near-term stock appreciation. The firm remains cautious about the uptake of Apellis's lead asset, Syfovre, in the U.S. market.
Apellis Pharmaceuticals has been making significant strides with its drug pegcetacoplan, following encouraging results from its Phase 3 VALIANT study. The drug demonstrated a 68% reduction in proteinuria, a marker of kidney damage, leading to positive reactions from Baird and Jefferies. Both firms maintained their optimistic ratings for Apellis, with Baird raising its price target to $96 and Jefferies to $82, citing the drug's potential in the medical field.
Pegcetacoplan is aimed at treating two rare and serious kidney diseases known as C3G and IC-MPGN. Its promising results have led to a projected increase in peak sales to around $1 billion. In light of these developments, Apellis plans to submit a supplemental new drug application to the U.S. FDA in early 2025.
InvestingPro Insights
Following Mizuho Securities' updated price target for Apellis Pharmaceuticals, InvestingPro data provides additional context for investors considering the company's stock. Apellis has a market cap of approximately $4.51 billion, reflecting investor valuation of the company. Despite the positive news from the VALIANT study, the company's P/E ratio stands at -13.41, and it has not been profitable over the last twelve months. This is consistent with Mizuho's cautious outlook on the company's near-term profitability.
However, Apellis's recent revenue growth has been substantial, with a 240.74% increase in the last twelve months as of Q2 2024, indicating a strong sales trajectory that could be appealing to investors looking for growth potential in the biopharmaceutical sector. The company's stock has also seen a significant return over the last week, with a 9.21% price total return, which may interest traders looking for short-term performance.
InvestingPro Tips highlight that analysts expect sales growth in the current year, which aligns with Mizuho's positive view of pegcetacoplan's potential market impact. Furthermore, with liquid assets exceeding short-term obligations and the company operating with a moderate level of debt, Apellis displays a stable financial position in terms of liquidity and leverage. For investors seeking more comprehensive analysis, there are additional tips available on InvestingPro, found at: https://www.investing.com/pro/APLS
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