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JPMorgan downgrades Logitech stock amid promotional pressure and growth concerns

EditorEmilio Ghigini
Published 05/01/2024, 06:42 PM

On Wednesday, JPMorgan adjusted its stance on Logitech (NASDAQ:LOGI) International (NASDAQ:LOGI) stock, downgrading from Overweight to Neutral and lowering the price target to $85 from the previous $92.

The firm cited a challenging macroeconomic environment and the need for aggressive promotions as factors that are likely to constrain the company's medium-term growth prospects.

Despite Logitech's strong execution in recent quarters, which has favorably surprised investors with a balance of revenue and gross margin, the focus is shifting. The company's strategy is now aimed at achieving healthy revenue growth in FY25 while maintaining margin improvements. However, this may involve difficult choices between preserving margins and pursuing promotion-driven revenue growth.

Logitech's management has reiterated its ability to deliver mid-single-digit organic growth historically, even though the previous 8%-10% revenue CAGR target included potential gains from mergers and acquisitions (M&A). The new management team's cautious approach to incorporating M&A into their model reflects the unpredictability of such transactions.

JPMorgan forecasts a modest 1% revenue growth for Logitech in FY25, with flat gross margins and operating profits, as well as earnings per share (EPS) that remain unchanged year over year.

This projection includes the effect of share buybacks counterbalancing increased tax rates. Looking ahead to FY26, the firm remains conservative, expecting 3% revenue growth and slight margin improvement, which should lead to high-single-digit earnings growth aided by buybacks.

The decision to revise the price target to $85 is based on updated estimates and a reduced earnings multiple, aligning more closely with Logitech's current trading multiple. JPMorgan's outlook suggests that the anticipated mid-single-digit EPS compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next few years does not support the historical valuation of 21 times the price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple for Logitech shares.

InvestingPro Insights

As we consider the recent analysis by JPMorgan on Logitech International (NASDAQ:LOGI), it's pertinent to integrate current financial metrics and InvestingPro Tips to provide a comprehensive view. Logitech's market capitalization stands at $12.05 billion, with a P/E ratio reflecting investor sentiment at 20.65. The company's revenue for the last twelve months as of Q4 2024 is reported at $4298.47 million, indicating a slight decline of 5.3% from the previous period. However, they have shown a quarterly revenue growth of 5.35% in Q4 2024, suggesting a potential rebound.

From the InvestingPro Tips, two notable highlights for Logitech include the management's proactive share buyback strategy, which can signal confidence in the company's value and future prospects. Additionally, Logitech's balance sheet strength is evident as it holds more cash than debt, providing financial flexibility in uncertain economic times. There are over 10 additional InvestingPro Tips available, which can offer further insights into Logitech's financial health and strategic positioning.

For investors seeking a deeper dive into Logitech's financial nuances, InvestingPro offers a detailed analysis, including tips on dividend consistency and stock volatility. To access these insights and more, use the coupon code PRONEWS24 to get an additional 10% off a yearly or biyearly Pro and Pro+ subscription.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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