On Thursday, JPMorgan adjusted its stance on Honeywell International (NASDAQ:HON), downgrading the stock from Overweight to Neutral, although the firm raised its price target to $235 from $225.
The revision comes with the analyst expressing concerns about the company's organic growth and its impact on profits, alongside the effects of portfolio management decisions, including divestitures and spin-offs, on the company's near-term earnings outlook.
The analyst cited a shift in Honeywell's strategy towards organic growth, which is anticipated to yield results in 2025, but may not significantly contribute to the bottom line due to a trade-off with margins. While Honeywell had potential upside from acquisition accretion in 2025, the focus has seemingly shifted to divestitures, which, although potentially improving quality metrics, could dilute earnings and diverge from consensus expectations.
A significant move in Honeywell's portfolio management was the spin-off of its Advanced Materials business. Despite being strategically sound, the spin-off is expected to trade at a lower multiple compared to its peers, which may not favor an increase in the sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation for Honeywell. This action could also lead to a potential overhang on Honeywell's stock throughout most of 2025.
The analyst's statement highlighted the complex balance Honeywell is navigating between fostering organic growth, managing acquisitions, and executing divestitures. The company's strategic maneuvers are designed to enhance its portfolio quality, but the immediate cost appears to be a deviation from the expected earnings trajectory.
In conclusion, the adjustment of Honeywell's price target to $235, up from the previous $225, reflects a nuanced view of the company's financial prospects amid its strategic realignments. The analyst's commentary underscores the challenges Honeywell may face in aligning its growth initiatives with shareholder expectations for earnings performance.
In other recent news, Honeywell International has announced plans to spin off its Advanced Materials business. The spin-off, expected to be finalized by late 2025 or early 2026, is part of Honeywell's strategy to concentrate on automation, aviation, and energy transition. The Advanced Materials division, which accounts for 10% of Honeywell's sales, is projected to generate $3.8 billion in sales with an EBITDA margin of over 25%.
Oppenheimer has maintained a Perform rating on Honeywell, focusing on this strategic move. TD Cowen also maintains a Buy rating, highlighting Honeywell's strategic initiatives, while Morgan Stanley initiated coverage with an Equal-weight rating, indicating caution regarding the company's near-term recovery prospects.
Additionally, Honeywell has increased its annual cash dividend from $4.32 to $4.52 per share, marking its 15th consecutive dividend increase. These recent developments underscore Honeywell's ongoing business operations and strategies.
InvestingPro Insights
To complement the analysis of Honeywell's strategic shifts and JPMorgan's downgrade, recent data from InvestingPro offers additional context. Honeywell's P/E ratio stands at 24.1, which aligns with an InvestingPro Tip indicating that the company is "Trading at a high P/E ratio relative to near-term earnings growth." This valuation metric supports JPMorgan's cautious stance on the stock's near-term potential.
Despite the concerns raised about organic growth and portfolio management, Honeywell maintains a strong dividend profile. An InvestingPro Tip highlights that the company "has raised its dividend for 14 consecutive years," with a current dividend yield of 2.12%. This consistent dividend growth may provide some stability for investors during the transition period discussed in the article.
The company's revenue for the last twelve months as of Q2 2024 was $37.33 billion, with a modest revenue growth of 3.28% over the same period. This moderate growth rate contextualizes the analyst's comments about the company's focus on organic growth and its potential impact on future earnings.
For investors seeking a more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers 11 additional tips for Honeywell, providing a broader perspective on the company's financial health and market position.
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.