On Tuesday, JPMorgan reaffirmed its Overweight stock rating and a price target of £2.40 for shares of Barclays (NYSE:BCS), following a meeting with the bank's CFO, Anna Cross.
The firm remains optimistic about Barclays' prospects, emphasizing the bank's adherence to its strategic plan, despite the stock's significant outperformance compared to its European counterparts since the beginning of the year.
The bank's first-quarter performance was in line with expectations, and management has reiterated all targets from their investor update. Barclays is reportedly focused on disciplined execution, aiming for consistency and accountability.
Notably, there were no specific comments regarding the second quarter's trading or investment banking, but the outlook for UK net interest income (NII) remains positive. The bank has indicated that deposit competition has eased post-ISA season, and the hedge on UK Corporate bank deposits is being reinvested after last year's pause.
Cost management is another area where Barclays is showing progress, with £0.2 billion of the £1 billion cost savings target already achieved in the first quarter.
The firm highlighted that inflation-linked salary increases starting in April and structural cost actions, which are expected to be significant and concentrated in the first half of the year, are included within the 63% cost-income ratio (CIR) target for 2024.
Credit performance continues to be strong, with first-quarter impairment at the lower end of the range. Management has confirmed that reserve builds for US Cards should be completed in the first half of the year, with expectations for a lower second half.
Regarding capital, Barclays' Common Tier 1 (CT1) ratio is at 13.5%, and the bank plans to distribute approximately £3 billion in capital in 2024, consistent with the previous year.
This includes an anticipated risk-weighted assets (RWA) increase related to US Cards in the third quarter, which is expected to be balanced by mitigations and disposals, such as the Blackstone (NYSE:BX) transaction and the sale of German Cards.
JPMorgan highlights Barclays as offering the most upside potential over a 24-month period, with capital return as a key driver alongside the UK growth strategy.
While some investors may await further results from the Corporate and Investment Bank (CIB) and US Cards turnaround strategies, the firm anticipates that capital returns will continue to support the stock as disposals are executed.
The long-term outlook for Barclays shares is seen as positive, with potential for growth from a price to tangible net asset value (P/TNAV) of 0.5x, even if management only partially achieves its targets.
InvestingPro Insights
Barclays (NYSE:BCS) has demonstrated a robust financial performance with a promising outlook, as evidenced by their latest metrics. The bank's adjusted market capitalization of $40.4 billion underscores its significant presence in the financial sector. Investors will find the P/E ratio of 6.94 for the last twelve months as of Q1 2024 particularly attractive, indicating a potentially undervalued stock when compared to the industry average. Furthermore, the bank's price to book ratio of 0.45 suggests that the shares are trading at less than half of their book value, which could be an indicator of a potential investment opportunity.
Barclays' commitment to cost management and capital distribution is supported by its impressive operating income margin of 30.81% for the last twelve months as of Q1 2024. Additionally, the bank's dividend yield of 4.82% as of the 135th day of 2024 is noteworthy for income-seeking investors, coupled with a dividend growth of 8.87% in the same period. The recent price total return metrics indicate a strong upward trend in the stock's performance, with a 48.5% return over the last year.
InvestingPro Tips suggest that Barclays' current performance and strategic initiatives could present long-term value for investors. For those looking to delve deeper into Barclays' financials and uncover additional investment opportunities, InvestingPro offers a wealth of resources, including PRONEWS24 to get an additional 10% off a yearly or biyearly Pro and Pro+ subscription. There are numerous additional tips available on InvestingPro that can further guide investment decisions.
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