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Jefferies downgrades Munich Re stock as earnings expectations peak

EditorEmilio Ghigini
Published 10/21/2024, 04:02 PM
MURGY
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On Monday, Jefferies adjusted its stance on Munich Re (MUV2:GR) (OTC: MURGY (OTC:MURGY)), downgrading the stock from Buy to Hold and lowering the price target to €485.00 from the previous €495.00.

The reevaluation comes as Munich Re's stock reached new all-time highs, even in the aftermath of Hurricane Milton. The firm's analysts suggest that the potential for consensus expectations to increase is limited, prompting the downgrade.

Following the impact of Hurricane Ian in 2022, Munich Re's 1-year consensus earnings expectations have more than doubled, with the share price moving alongside these expectations. This reflects the hard market conditions post-Hurricane Ian and the all-time high in risk-adjusted prices.

However, Jefferies notes that with net income forecasts set at €6.2 billion for 2025 and €6.3 billion for 2026, it is challenging to foresee further significant upside for the stock.

The firm's analysts have considered the current valuation of Munich Re's shares in light of the company's financial performance and market conditions. Despite the stock's strong correlation with earnings expectations, Jefferies believes that the current share price has already surpassed their target, leading to the decision to downgrade the recommendation to Hold.

Jefferies has also acknowledged statements from Munich Re's management indicating that reaching a net income of €7 billion is unlikely. This statement has contributed to the firm's reassessment of the stock's future performance potential.

In summary, Jefferies' updated analysis of Munich Re is based on the company's recent all-time high stock prices, the doubling of consensus earnings expectations since Hurricane Ian, and the management's outlook on future net income. These factors combined have led to the conclusion that the stock's capacity for further gains is limited, resulting in the downgrade to Hold with a revised price target of €485.00.

In other recent news, Munich Re has seen significant developments that are worth noting. The insurance giant's financial strength credit rating was recently upgraded from "AA-" to "AA" by Standard & Poor's (S&P). This decision was influenced by Munich Re's improved underwriting profitability and earnings diversification over recent years.

Concurrently, Berenberg increased the price target for Munich Re shares to €520.00, up from the previous €480.00, maintaining a Buy rating on the stock. The firm supported the upgrade, stating that Munich Re's diversification has been historically underestimated by the market.

These are recent developments that could potentially influence Munich Re's borrowing costs positively and enhance its reputation among investors.

InvestingPro Insights

Munich Re's recent performance aligns with Jefferies' assessment, as reflected in the latest InvestingPro data. The company's P/E ratio of 11.2 and PEG ratio of 0.37 suggest that the stock is trading at a relatively low valuation compared to its near-term earnings growth, which is highlighted as an InvestingPro Tip. This could explain the stock's recent surge to near its 52-week high, with a significant 26.77% price return over the past six months.

The company's financial health appears robust, with revenue growth of 3.91% in the last twelve months and a strong operating income margin of 12.07%. Munich Re's dividend profile is particularly noteworthy, with an InvestingPro Tip indicating that the company has maintained dividend payments for 33 consecutive years and has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years. The current dividend yield stands at 2.06%, with an impressive dividend growth of 27.58% in the last twelve months.

These insights complement Jefferies' analysis, providing additional context to Munich Re's valuation and performance. For investors seeking a deeper understanding, InvestingPro offers 9 more tips that could further inform investment decisions regarding Munich Re.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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