On Thursday, Jefferies made a significant adjustment to its stance on Marinus (NASDAQ:MRNS) Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:MRNS), downgrading the stock from Buy to Hold. The firm also drastically reduced its price target for the company's shares to $0.50 from the previous target of $5.00. The downgrade follows the disappointing outcome of a Phase III study of Marinus's oral ganaxolone (GNX) in treating TSC, a rare form of epilepsy, which did not meet the primary endpoint of reducing seizures.
The analyst from Jefferies noted that despite low investor expectations, which had skewed the risk/reward balance favorably, the failure of the GNX study in TSC and refractory status epilepticus (RSE) has led to a reevaluation. The firm now assigns a 0% probability of success (PoS) to GNX for these indications. This reassessment has prompted the firm to lower its expectations for the stock's performance.
According to the analyst, Marinus Pharmaceuticals is facing a period with no significant catalysts expected in 2025, which has influenced the decision to downgrade the stock to a Hold rating. The company's financial position was also addressed, with a reported pro-forma cash balance of $45 million, equating to approximately $0.80 per share, which is expected to fund operations into the second quarter of 2025.
The analyst emphasized the importance of new cost reduction measures for Marinus Pharmaceuticals to extend its financial runway. With the company's prospects now viewed more cautiously, the revised price target reflects the changed outlook for the company's lead drug candidate and its potential impact on the company's financial sustainability.
In other recent news, Marinus Pharmaceuticals has seen significant changes following the failure of its Phase 3 study of ganaxolone in treating Tuberous Sclerosis Complex (TSC). The unsuccessful trial led to Baird reducing its price target for Marinus to $0.50 from $2.00, while maintaining a neutral stance. Truist Securities also downgraded Marinus Pharmaceuticals from Buy to Hold due to the setback in the Phase 3 TrustTSC clinical trial for the drug ganaxolone.
The company's net product revenues increased to $8 million for the second quarter, primarily due to ZTALMY. Despite a net loss before income taxes of $35.8 million for the quarter, Marinus plans to launch ZTALMY for TSC in the second half of 2025, targeting net product revenues between $33 million and $35 million for 2024.
Marinus is currently exploring strategic alternatives, including partnerships, mergers, or a possible sale of the company. The company has also secured a new U.S. patent for ZTALMY, set to expire in September 2042, and successfully upheld a patent related to the use of ganaxolone.
Analysts at TD Cowen and Oppenheimer have maintained a Buy rating and upgraded the stock to Outperform, respectively, expressing confidence in the potential efficacy of ganaxolone. These recent developments highlight Marinus Pharmaceuticals' ongoing efforts in the field of seizure disorder therapeutics.
InvestingPro Insights
The recent downgrade by Jefferies aligns with several InvestingPro metrics and tips for Marinus Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:MRNS). According to InvestingPro data, MRNS has a market capitalization of $16.36 million, reflecting the significant impact of the recent clinical trial setback. The company's financial health is under scrutiny, with an InvestingPro Tip noting that MRNS is "quickly burning through cash," which corroborates the analyst's concern about the company's financial runway.
The challenging financial position is further illustrated by MRNS's negative gross profit margin of -221.93% for the last twelve months as of Q2 2024, and an operating income margin of -440.11% for the same period. These figures support another InvestingPro Tip stating that MRNS "suffers from weak gross profit margins."
Despite these challenges, MRNS has shown a strong return of 19.43% over the last three months, as reported by InvestingPro. However, this recent performance is overshadowed by a year-to-date price total return of -84.45%, aligning with the InvestingPro Tip that the "price has fallen significantly over the last year."
For investors seeking a more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers additional tips and insights. Currently, there are 5 more InvestingPro Tips available for MRNS, which could provide valuable context for understanding the company's prospects in light of recent developments.
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.