On Monday, Evercore issued a negative tactical call on shares of Best Buy (NYSE: NYSE:BBY), expressing concerns over the company's market share losses in major appliances and televisions. Ahead of the fiscal second-quarter results set to be announced on August 29th, Best Buy's consumer electronics retail sales showed a 2% increase in the first two months of the quarter, conflicting with Evercore's estimate of a 3% decline.
TraQline data indicated a significant decrease in Best Buy's market share for appliances and TVs in the second calendar quarter, which, coupled with the company's strategy of charging for installation, might be impacting sales of products that account for approximately 30% of its revenue.
With operating margins projected at 3.6% for the second quarter and limited scope for reducing selling, general and administrative expenses, the outlook appears challenging.
The report also highlighted that Best Buy's stock had risen by 13% over the past 90 days following management's announcement of a new AI-led laptop cycle. However, Evercore remains skeptical, citing that consumer electronics deflation and market share pressures could dampen the company's performance.
The firm's earnings per share (EPS) estimate stands at $6, which is $0.10 below the consensus of $6.10, and their projection for calendar year 2025 is 5% below the consensus at $6.35.
In addition to Best Buy, Evercore also commented on Lowe's Companies (NYSE: NYSE:LOW), which is expected to report its fiscal second-quarter earnings on August 20th. Evercore anticipates that Lowe's will maintain its EPS guidance for 2024 but will likely guide towards the lower end of the $12 to $12.30 range, aligning with Evercore's $12 estimate.
The home improvement retailer's second-quarter comparable sales are expected to remain under pressure, with a slight improvement in the second half of the year, although still negative. Lowe's market share in appliances also showed a decline in the second calendar quarter, contrasting with gains by its competitor Home Depot (NYSE:HD).
Furthermore, Evercore reduced its home improvement forecast for the second half of 2024 by nearly 200 basis points, reflecting the expectation of continued weak demand for big-ticket consumer discretionary items. The firm's 2024 forecast for the home improvement sector is now at a negative 2.5%.
The report suggests that actual spending on home improvement may not turn positive until 2025, as rising interest rates could eventually stimulate economic housing starts and stabilize consumer spending.
Despite a slight positive trend in the Home Improvement Lead indicator, the traditional wealth effect seems to be less influential in the current cycle, with consumers deferring and downsizing home improvement expenditures due to inflation, depleted savings, and increased household debt.
In other recent news, Lowe's Companies, Inc. has seen noteworthy developments. The company has promoted Jennifer Wilson to the role of senior vice president and chief marketing officer, where she will lead strategic brand and product marketing, among other responsibilities.
In financial news, Lowe's reported first-quarter earnings per share that exceeded expectations by 4%, despite a challenging macroeconomic climate. However, the company's second-quarter earnings per share guidance was below consensus.
On a positive note, Lowe's has increased its quarterly cash dividend by 5% to $1.15 per share, reflecting confidence in its growth strategy. Analysts from firms such as Mizuho Securities USA LLC, Piper Sandler, RBC Capital Markets, and Barclays Capital Inc. have provided ratings on Lowe's, ranging from "Buy" to "Equal Weight." BofA Securities maintained its Buy rating, while TD Cowen sustained its Hold rating, noting an unexpected gross margin shortfall.
Lowe's has also expanded its same-day delivery options by partnering with DoorDash (NASDAQ:DASH) and Shipt, contributing to the company's online sales growth. These are among the recent developments that continue to shape the trajectory of Lowe's Companies, Inc.
InvestingPro Insights
In light of the concerns raised by Evercore regarding Best Buy's market share and performance, it's worth noting that Lowe's Companies (NYSE: LOW), another retailer discussed in the report, has demonstrated a resilience that could be instructive. According to InvestingPro data, Lowe's has a market capitalization of $134.38 billion and a P/E ratio of 18.94, which adjusts to 18.86 when considering the last twelve months as of Q1 2025. This P/E ratio is relatively low when paired with the company's near-term earnings growth, suggesting that Lowe's stock might be undervalued (InvestingPro Tip #1).
Additionally, Lowe's has been a prominent player in the Specialty Retail industry and has maintained dividend payments for an impressive 54 consecutive years, which reflects a stable financial strategy (InvestingPro Tip #3). The company's commitment to shareholder return is further underscored by its record of raising its dividend for 40 consecutive years (InvestingPro Tip #0). These factors, combined with the prediction from analysts that Lowe's will be profitable this year (InvestingPro Tip #4), could provide investors with a sense of security amidst market uncertainties.
For those interested in a deeper analysis, InvestingPro offers additional tips that could help investors make more informed decisions regarding Lowe's and similar companies. With a dividend yield of 1.95% and a recent history of positive price total returns, Lowe's financial health appears robust in contrast to the challenges faced by Best Buy. Investors looking to explore more about this could find value in the comprehensive insights available through InvestingPro.
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