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Etsy reports slower-than-expected GMS growth; Citi cuts stock PT

Published 11/01/2024, 12:58 AM
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On Thursday, Citi adjusted its outlook on Etsy (NASDAQ:ETSY), reducing the e-commerce platform's price target from $65.00 to $54.00, while retaining a Neutral stance on the stock. The revision follows Etsy's recent financial performance, which revealed mixed results. The company experienced slower-than-expected Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS) growth, although it managed to report better than anticipated take rates and profit margins.

Etsy's recent quarter has not been without challenges, particularly due to the current economic climate for consumer discretionary goods. The company has not benefited from the large discounting events that have attracted consumers elsewhere. This has contributed to the pressure on GMS growth, with forecasts for the third and fourth quarters falling short of initial expectations.

Despite these headwinds, Etsy has shown resilience in areas it can directly influence. The company's take rates and profitability have outperformed, and the announcement of a new $1 billion share buyback program is expected to boost investor confidence.

These positive developments, however, are contrasted by the ongoing concerns regarding GMS growth, which is a key performance indicator for both analysts and Etsy's management.

Etsy's management is proactively investing in foundational improvements aimed at fostering long-term growth. These efforts are in their early stages, and while they hold the potential for significant impact, the timeline for a positive shift in growth remains uncertain due to the lack of clear economic indicators. The company's strategic investments are designed to yield compounding growth once the broader market conditions improve.

In other recent news, Etsy's recent financial results showcased a mixed performance. The company reported revenues of $662.4 million, surpassing the expected $652.5 million, and an Adjusted EBITDA of $183.6 million, which was above the forecast of $177.4 million. However, Etsy's Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS) experienced a year-over-year decline of 4.1%, totaling $2.92 billion, which fell short of the anticipated $2.97 billion.

Analyst firms BTIG and Barclays have both adjusted their price targets for Etsy, lowering them to $65 and $55 respectively, while maintaining a positive outlook on the stock.

Despite the GM's decline, Etsy has chosen to focus on enhancing the site to improve conversion rates. This strategy has led to negative GMS growth for 10 of the past 11 quarters, a trend that is expected to continue into the next quarter.

Etsy introduced physical gift cards and improved customer experience features, with its Depop platform showing strong performance in the U.S. market. However, the active seller count decreased to 6.2 million, an 8.5% decline from the previous year.

These are recent developments that reflect Etsy's strategic adjustments and product enhancements designed to navigate through a period of economic slowdown. While GMS has seen a decline, the company's revenue growth and stable active buyer count indicate a robust business model capable of weathering market fluctuations.

InvestingPro Insights

Etsy's recent financial performance, as highlighted in the article, is reflected in the latest InvestingPro data and tips. The company's market cap stands at $5.51 billion, with a P/E ratio of 19.87, indicating that despite challenges, Etsy remains profitable. This profitability is further emphasized by an InvestingPro Tip noting that Etsy has been profitable over the last twelve months.

The article mentions Etsy's resilience in areas it can directly influence, such as take rates and profitability. This is supported by InvestingPro data showing an impressive gross profit margin of 70.78% for the last twelve months as of Q2 2024. An InvestingPro Tip also highlights Etsy's "impressive gross profit margins," aligning with the company's ability to maintain profitability despite slower GMS growth.

The newly announced $1 billion share buyback program, mentioned in the article, is consistent with an InvestingPro Tip stating that "management has been aggressively buying back shares." This strategy, along with Etsy's "high shareholder yield" (another InvestingPro Tip), could indeed boost investor confidence as the article suggests.

However, the challenges in GMS growth are reflected in the stock's recent performance. InvestingPro data shows a 3-month price total return of -26.33% and a 6-month return of -30.12%, illustrating the market's reaction to slower growth and economic headwinds.

For investors seeking a more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers 15 additional tips for Etsy, providing deeper insights into the company's financial health and market position.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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