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Dollar Tree stock target cut, maintains Overweight rating on strategic moves

EditorNatashya Angelica
Published 06/07/2024, 12:16 AM

On Thursday, KeyBanc adjusted its outlook on Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:DLTR) shares, reducing the stock price target to $145 from the previous $150 while maintaining an Overweight rating.

The adjustment comes in the wake of the company's announcement regarding strategic alternatives for its Family Dollar segment. KeyBanc's analysis suggests that this move could offer a potential 23% upside for shareholders if a conservative divestiture scenario plays out, as detailed in their report from April 30.

Dollar Tree's first-quarter comparable store sales (comps) did not meet expectations, although Family Dollar's comps aligned with predictions. The company has seen improvement following a shorter Easter period and unfavorable weather conditions that had previously impacted results.

Despite the mixed performance, Dollar Tree's management has reaffirmed its 2024 comp and sales forecasts. However, they have revised their earnings per share (EPS) guidance downwards, attributing the change to additional costs stemming from tornado damage at one of their distribution centers.

KeyBanc's decision to lower the price target reflects anticipated challenges, including heightened transportation expenses. Nonetheless, the firm remains optimistic about Dollar Tree's future, citing the R.I.B.S. framework—a strategy emphasizing growth opportunities and the potential for increased shareholder value through the divestiture of Family Dollar. This strategy is expected to support the company's prospects despite near-term headwinds.

The report highlights the importance of strategic alternatives for Family Dollar as a means to enhance shareholder value. While the near-term results have been mixed, with some segments underperforming and others meeting targets, the overall outlook for Dollar Tree remains positive in the eyes of KeyBanc, given the identified avenues for growth and value creation.

In other recent news, Dollar Tree has been the subject of several adjustments by financial firms. BofA Securities lowered its price target for the company to $117, citing concerns over the financial implications of Dollar Tree's ongoing transition to a multi-price point strategy and potential risks due to the costs associated with converting stores.

Similarly, Deutsche Bank reduced its stock price target to $149, following the company's announcement of a strategic review of its Family Dollar business and its first-quarter performance that did not meet expectations.

BMO Capital also revised its outlook on Dollar Tree, reducing the stock price target from $150 to $145, due to increased distribution center costs affecting future earnings per share and a conservative estimate of comparable sales for the coming years.

Piper Sandler reduced its stock price target to $143, noting concerns over slowing comparable store sales growth, while maintaining an Overweight rating on the stock. Truist Securities revised its price target for Dollar Tree shares to $140 due to weaker-than-expected results.

These are recent developments that highlight the operational and financial performance of Dollar Tree. The company reported a consolidated net sales increase of 4.2% to $7.6 billion in its first quarter, with comparable store sales rising by 1.7%. The company's full-year adjusted earnings per share is projected to be in the range of $6.50 to $7. These adjustments by financial firms reflect the recent developments in Dollar Tree's operational and financial performance.

InvestingPro Insights

In light of KeyBanc's recent price target adjustment for Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:DLTR), current data from InvestingPro provides additional context to the company's financial health and market performance. Dollar Tree's market capitalization stands at $24.7 billion, reflecting the size and scale of the company within the retail sector. Despite a challenging period, with a reported price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of -25.34, the adjusted P/E ratio for the last twelve months as of Q1 2023 is more favorable at 22.66. This suggests that investors may be looking at a more normalized earnings picture moving forward.

Revenue growth remains a bright spot, with a 7.51% increase over the last twelve months as of Q1 2023, indicating that the company is still expanding despite headwinds. However, the price of Dollar Tree shares has experienced a significant drop of 23.31% over the last three months, signaling potential concerns among investors or broader market trends affecting the stock.

InvestingPro Tips highlight that while analysts have revised earnings downwards for the upcoming period, there is an expectation of net income growth this year. Moreover, the company's ability to cover interest payments with its cash flows and the fact that its liquid assets exceed short-term obligations provide some financial stability. Investors may also find reassurance in the prediction that Dollar Tree will be profitable this year, even though it currently does not pay a dividend to shareholders.

For those seeking a deeper dive into Dollar Tree's financials and future prospects, InvestingPro offers additional tips to guide investment decisions. Utilize coupon code PRONEWS24 to get an additional 10% off a yearly or biyearly Pro and Pro+ subscription, and discover the wealth of analysis and insights available, including many more InvestingPro Tips related to Dollar Tree at https://www.investing.com/pro/DLTR.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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