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Deutsche Bank reaffirms Hold on AMD stock, citing worries about margin expansion

Published 10/30/2024, 11:10 PM
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On Wednesday, Deutsche Bank upheld a Hold rating on shares of AMD (NASDAQ:AMD), with a price target steady at $150.00. The bank's analysis acknowledged AMD's strong performance in the recent quarter, particularly noting that the MI300 Data Center GPU product family's revenue surpassed expectations, generating over $1.5 billion compared to the bank's estimate of approximately $1.4 billion.

Looking forward, AMD's projections for 2024 indicate revenues surpassing $5 billion, an increase from prior forecasts of over $4.5 billion and aligning with Deutsche Bank's expectations.

AMD's mixed demand trends were highlighted, with healthy client demand in the second half of 2024 but subdued gaming and embedded markets. Server CPU demand is showing modest improvements, raising questions about when the product mix will normalize compared to GPUs.

The bank also noted that AMD's margin expansion is solid year-over-year but is starting to plateau due to the impact of the MI300 on gross margins and increased operating expenses required for product development.

Despite AMD's strong execution and the anticipation of continued growth into 2025, Deutsche Bank's estimates for the company's calendar years 2025 and 2026 have not substantially changed, with slight increases in revenue projections but a slight decrease in earnings per share compared to previous estimates.

The bank's valuation of AMD shares remains at 24 times the estimated earnings per share for the calendar year 2026, which stands at $6.40, supporting the decision to maintain the Hold rating.

In other recent news, Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) has faced several developments. Evercore ISI has raised its price target for AMD to $198, maintaining its positive outlook based on AMD's strong position in the merchant accelerator market. Despite a recent decline in AMD's shares following its earnings report, the firm continues to support investment in AMD due to the company's ongoing market share gains.

Citi has adjusted its outlook on AMD shares, reducing the price target to $200 from the previous $210. This adjustment is due to expected margin pressures from AMD's MI300 product and reduced gaming margins. Meanwhile, Barclays has maintained its Overweight rating on AMD but reduced the price target from $180 to $170 due to potential headwinds in the client segment.

Lastly, OpenAI has announced a collaboration with Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) Inc. and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) to create its inaugural in-house artificial intelligence chip, incorporating AMD chips to satisfy its growing infrastructure needs. This strategy aims to manage costs effectively.

These developments underscore AMD's ongoing role in the rapidly evolving AI and semiconductor industries.

InvestingPro Insights

Adding to Deutsche Bank's analysis, recent InvestingPro data provides further context on AMD's financial position and market performance. The company's market capitalization stands at an impressive $269.07 billion, reflecting its significant presence in the semiconductor industry. AMD's revenue for the last twelve months as of Q2 2024 reached $23.28 billion, with a notable revenue growth of 6.4% over the same period.

InvestingPro Tips highlight AMD's strong market performance, with a significant 72.85% price return over the past year and a 20.09% return in the last three months. These figures align with Deutsche Bank's observations on AMD's solid execution and growth trajectory. Additionally, AMD's liquid assets exceeding short-term obligations suggest a healthy financial position, supporting the company's ability to invest in product development as noted in the Deutsche Bank report.

However, investors should note that AMD is trading at a high P/E ratio of 198.13, indicating that the stock may be priced at a premium relative to its current earnings. This valuation metric underscores Deutsche Bank's cautious Hold rating, despite the company's strong performance.

For readers interested in a more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers 16 additional tips on AMD, providing a deeper dive into the company's financial health and market position.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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