On Thursday, Deutsche Bank reaffirmed its Buy rating and $14.00 price target for American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL). The airline's September quarter performance exceeded the bank's expectations, with an adjusted pretax income of $271 million, resulting in a 2.0% pretax margin. This figure favorably surpassed the bank's forecast of $89 million and a 0.7% pretax margin. Consequently, American Airlines posted an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.30, which not only beat Deutsche Bank's estimate of $0.10 EPS but also the Bloomberg consensus mean EPS of $0.14.
American Airlines achieved a record total revenue of approximately $13.6 billion for the September quarter, marking a 1.2% increase and about $225 million above Deutsche Bank's forecast. Despite a 2.0% year-over-year decrease in total unit revenue, the performance was better than the anticipated decline of 2.5% to 4.5%. The airline also reported a capacity growth of 3.2%, aligning with the guidance of a 2% to 4% increase.
The total adjusted operating expense for the quarter was around $13.0 billion, which was $27 million more than expected by Deutsche Bank. Adjusted cost per available seat mile excluding fuel (CASM-ex) was 13.4 cents, a 2.8% increase from the previous year, and sat at the midpoint of the forecasted range of 1% to 3% growth.
Looking ahead to the December quarter of 2024, American Airlines anticipates total available seat miles (ASMs) to rise by 1% to 3% year-over-year, with unit revenue expected to decrease by 1% to 3%. The airline's CASM-ex is projected to climb by 4% to 6% year-over-year. American Airlines also provided guidance on fuel costs, expecting an average price of $2.20 to $2.40 per gallon. Non-operating expenses for the December quarter are projected to be around $350 million. Overall, the adjusted operating margin for the quarter is forecasted to be between 4.5% and 6.5%, with an EPS of $0.25 to $0.50, compared to Deutsche Bank's estimate of $0.08 and the Bloomberg consensus mean EPS of $0.30.
In other recent news, American Airlines Group Inc. has raised its 2024 earnings per share (EPS) outlook due to strong travel demand and improved pricing capabilities. The revised EPS projection now ranges from $1.35 to $1.60, an increase from the previous estimate of 70 cents to $1.30. This follows a period of excess supply of airline seats, especially during the summer travel season, which led to reduced ticket prices. In response to this, American Airlines and other U.S. airlines have adopted a strategy of reducing capacity growth.
However, American Airlines has also been hit with a record $50 million fine by the U.S. Transportation Department for issues related to the handling of disabled passengers. The fine is the largest ever penalty for disability protection violations in the airline industry. American Airlines is required to pay $25 million over the next three years as part of the settlement.
Amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, American Airlines, along with other international airlines, has made significant adjustments to their flight schedules, affecting services to and within the region. TD Cowen has also adjusted its outlook on American Airlines shares, raising the price target from $7.00 to $9.00, while maintaining a Hold rating on the shares. This comes as the firm anticipates the airline to release its third-quarter results later in the week, with expectations set low for both the third and fourth quarters.
Despite these developments, American Airlines reported a net loss of $149 million, or 23 cents per share, an improvement from the $545 million, or 83 cents per share loss, recorded in the same period last year. The airline's total operating revenue observed a slight increase of 1.2%, reaching $13.65 billion.
InvestingPro Insights
American Airlines' recent performance, as highlighted in Deutsche Bank's analysis, aligns with several key insights from InvestingPro. The company's record total revenue of $13.6 billion for the September quarter is reflected in InvestingPro's data, which shows a revenue of $53.45 billion over the last twelve months. This robust revenue figure underscores American Airlines' position as a prominent player in the Passenger Airlines industry, an InvestingPro Tip that reinforces the company's market strength.
The airline's ability to exceed earnings expectations is particularly noteworthy given InvestingPro's observation that the company was not profitable over the last twelve months. However, an encouraging InvestingPro Tip reveals that analysts predict the company will be profitable this year, which aligns with the positive outlook in Deutsche Bank's report.
InvestingPro data also shows strong returns for American Airlines over the last month (16.21%) and three months (26.16%), which may reflect investor optimism following the better-than-expected quarterly results. These metrics, combined with the company's forward-looking guidance, suggest a potentially improving financial trajectory for American Airlines.
For investors seeking a more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers 8 additional tips for American Airlines, providing a deeper understanding of the company's financial health and market position.
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