On Monday, Deutsche Bank revised its price target for Celanese Corporation (NYSE:CE) shares, a global chemical and specialty materials company, to $160 from the previous $172. The firm retains a Hold rating on the stock.
This adjustment comes in the wake of Celanese announcing a force majeure on acetic acid and vinyl acetate monomer in the Western Hemisphere, attributed to operational disruptions at several of its raw material suppliers.
The bank has also modified its Q2 earnings per share (EPS) estimate for Celanese, reducing it by $0.20, or 7%, which now stands at $2.65. This figure is still a 22% year-over-year increase. The Q3 EPS forecast was also decreased by $0.10, or 3%, to $3.30, indicating a 32% year-over-year rise.
The anticipated costs associated with the ongoing production challenges and other operational issues at the company's US Gulf Coast Acetyl chain network have been factored into these revised estimates.
As a result of these adjustments, Deutsche Bank's EPS projection for the year 2024 has been lowered by $0.30, or 3%, to $11.30, which is a 28% increase from the previous year. However, the bank's EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 remain unchanged at $14.00 and $16.00, reflecting a 24% and 14% increase, respectively.
The reduction in the price target to $160, which offers a 9% upside, is also influenced by recent multiple compression among Celanese's peers. Despite the adjusted target, Deutsche Bank views the valuation as fair, with the stock trading at 12.8 times the estimated 2024 EPS and 10.9 times the projected 2025 EBITDA. The bank also notes that Celanese's balance sheet remains leveraged, with a net debt/EBITDA ratio of 4.2 expected at the end of 2024.
In other recent news, Celanese Corporation has been facing significant production challenges due to supply chain disruptions. The company declared Force Majeure, resulting in an anticipated 15-20% reduction in second-quarter production of acetic acid and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM).
BofA Securities has revised its price target for Celanese to $144, maintaining an Underperform rating due to concerns over increased unit costs and reduced margins. The firm predicts a potential $20 million hit to EBITDA, which is about 3% of the second-quarter estimate for Celanese.
Citi has reiterated a Neutral rating on Celanese shares with a $167 price target. Analysts from BMO Capital Markets, RBC Capital, and Baird have also updated their outlook, with price targets raised to $158, $176, and $180 respectively. These adjustments reflect their expectations of the company's resilience and potential for growth despite the current challenges.
Despite these difficulties, Celanese maintains its fiscal year 2024 guidance, with an EPS forecast of $11-12, and a second-quarter guidance set at $2.60-3.00 EPS. The company's strategic acquisitions, such as DuPont (NYSE:DD)'s mobility and materials business, and a focus on debt reduction and robust free cash flow generation, are expected to drive long-term earnings growth and return value to shareholders. These recent developments underscore Celanese's stable financial position amidst challenging operating conditions.
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