On Monday, TD Cowen maintained a positive outlook on Deckers Outdoor (NYSE: NYSE:DECK), raising the stock's price target to $178 from $176 while keeping a Buy rating. The firm's analysis indicates sustained momentum for Deckers' HOKA brand, with rising average selling prices (ASPs) in the second quarter and robust full-price sales.
The updated price target reflects a valuation of 27 times the projected earnings per share (EPS) for fiscal year 2026 and approximately 20 times the enterprise value to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EV/EBITDA).
The analyst pointed to proprietary surveys and fieldwork that show the HOKA brand's continued success. This includes increased ASPs in the recent quarter and high full-price sell-through rates, suggesting strong consumer demand and effective brand positioning. Moreover, the analyst believes that the company's fiscal year 2025 gross margin guidance appears conservative given the current performance trends.
Deckers' UGG brand is also expected to contribute significantly to the company's financials, particularly in the third quarter, which historically accounts for 48% of the brand's annual sales and 53% of the total company's earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT). The focus for investors and analysts alike will likely remain on the gross margin guidance for the second half of the fiscal year, as this period is critical for the company's performance.
The revision in the price target comes as TD Cowen sees Deckers Outdoor in a strong position to continue its growth trajectory, bolstered by the HOKA brand's positive developments and the seasonal impact of the UGG brand. Investors will be watching closely as the company progresses through the remainder of the fiscal year, with particular attention to the gross margin outcomes in light of the analyst's expectations.
In other recent news, Deckers Outdoor Corporation and On Holding AG have both been in the spotlight with a series of significant developments. Deckers Outdoor reported a robust 22% increase in Q1 FY2025 revenues, largely due to a 30% surge in revenue from the HOKA brand and a 14% rise from the UGG brand, leading to an upward revision of the company's annual profit forecast.
The company also underwent a 6-for-1 stock split, which was endorsed by analysts from Williams Trading and TD Cowen, who adjusted their price targets to reflect the new valuation.
On the other hand, On Holding AG saw its On Running brand climb to the third spot as the favorite athletic footwear brand among upper-income female teens, according to a survey by Piper Sandler. The firm maintained an Overweight rating on On Holding shares, bolstered by these findings.
Analysts have shown varied responses towards Deckers Outdoor. While UBS maintained a positive outlook, raising the price target to $226 and keeping a Buy rating, Seaport Global Securities downgraded Deckers from "Buy" to "Neutral", expressing concerns about diminishing momentum for the HOKA and UGG brands. Truist Securities increased the stock price target for Deckers to $205.00, expressing confidence in the company's continued strong performance.
These are just a few of the recent developments affecting both companies. Investors are advised to monitor these situations closely.
InvestingPro Insights
Deckers Outdoor's strong market position, as highlighted by TD Cowen's analysis, is further supported by recent financial data and insights from InvestingPro. The company's market capitalization stands at $24.58 billion, reflecting investor confidence in its growth prospects.
InvestingPro data shows that Deckers has achieved impressive revenue growth, with a 20.3% increase over the last twelve months as of Q1 2023. This aligns with TD Cowen's observations about the sustained momentum of the HOKA brand and the expected strong performance of UGG. The company's profitability is also noteworthy, with a gross profit margin of 56.54% and an operating income margin of 22.51% for the same period.
InvestingPro Tips suggest that Deckers is trading at a low P/E ratio relative to its near-term earnings growth, which could indicate potential upside for investors. This is particularly relevant given TD Cowen's increased price target and the company's strong brand performance. Moreover, Deckers holds more cash than debt on its balance sheet, providing financial flexibility to support its growth initiatives.
For investors seeking a deeper understanding of Deckers' financial health and growth potential, InvestingPro offers 14 additional tips, providing a comprehensive analysis to inform investment decisions.
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