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Citi raises Norfolk Southern target to $302, maintains buy

Published 10/23/2024, 02:44 AM
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On Tuesday, Citi updated its stance on Norfolk Southern (NYSE: NSC), lifting the price target to $302 from $294, while reiterating a Buy rating on the shares. The revision follows Norfolk Southern's third-quarter earnings, which showcased a 23% year-over-year increase in adjusted earnings per share (EPS) to $3.25. This performance exceeded both the analyst's and the Street's expectations by $0.10 and $0.14, respectively.

The railway company's strong quarterly results were attributed to enhanced operations, efficiencies, and cost reductions. Notably, the adjusted operating ratio (OR) improved significantly, reaching 63.4%, which marks a 170 basis point improvement from the previous quarter and a 570 basis point enhancement from the previous year. This figure surpassed Citi's and the Street's projections by 70 basis points and 140 basis points, respectively.

Chief Operating Officer John Orr was commended for advancing Positive Train Control (PSR) implementation, a key area where Norfolk Southern had faced challenges in the past. His leadership is credited with driving efficiency gains and margin improvements. Despite the robust OR this quarter, which was partly attributed to a pull-forward in volume and operating leverage, management signaled potential OR deterioration in the fourth quarter of 2024.

The company remains confident in achieving its target of a sub-60 OR, contingent on macroeconomic support. However, the pricing environment is described as challenging, with overall revenue per unit (RPU) down by 4% year-over-year. This decline was led by a 11% drop in coal and a 5% decrease in intermodal revenues. Despite these headwinds, Citi has maintained its Buy rating on Norfolk Southern's stock.

In other recent news, Norfolk Southern Corporation (NYSE:NSC) reported a 3% increase in revenue, bringing it up to $3.05 billion for the third quarter of 2024. This coincided with a 23% rise in adjusted earnings per share and a significant improvement in the company's adjusted operating ratio. Despite a decrease in fuel surcharge revenue and coal prices, Norfolk Southern experienced growth across all segments and strategic gains from line sales.

The company also reported a 7% volume growth across all segments, although revenue per unit decreased by 4%. In terms of operational improvements, there was a 13% increase in car velocity and an 18% rise in locomotive productivity. Looking ahead, Norfolk Southern executives anticipate seasonal upticks in operating ratio due to factors like cleanup costs from Hurricane Helene.

Lastly, the company has expressed confidence in achieving full-year targets and improving margins. These are some of the recent developments at Norfolk Southern Corporation.

InvestingPro Insights

Building on Norfolk Southern's strong quarterly performance, recent data from InvestingPro provides additional context to the company's financial position and market valuation. As of the last twelve months ending Q2 2024, Norfolk Southern reported revenue of $12.09 billion, with a gross profit margin of 43.85% and an operating income margin of 35.15%. These figures underscore the company's ability to maintain profitability despite the challenging pricing environment mentioned in the earnings report.

InvestingPro Tips highlight that Norfolk Southern has raised its dividend for 7 consecutive years and has maintained dividend payments for 43 consecutive years, demonstrating a strong commitment to shareholder returns. This aligns with the company's solid financial performance and may be attractive to income-focused investors. Additionally, the stock is trading near its 52-week high, reflecting investor confidence in the company's recent operational improvements and future prospects.

It's worth noting that Norfolk Southern is trading at a high earnings multiple, with a P/E ratio of 33.01. This valuation suggests that investors have high expectations for future growth, possibly based on the efficiency gains and margin improvements highlighted in the recent earnings report. For investors seeking more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers 10 additional tips for Norfolk Southern, providing a deeper understanding of the company's financial health and market position.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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