Citi has reaffirmed its Buy rating on Airbus SE (AIR: FP) (OTC: OTC:EADSY), maintaining a price target of EUR182.00.
The firm addressed concerns regarding the aircraft manufacturer's September delivery numbers, emphasizing the risks of making full-year delivery predictions based on a short period.
According to Citi, historical data shows that by the end of August, Airbus typically achieves 57.2% of its full-year deliveries, and 65.3% by the end of September.
For 2024, with a delivery target of 770 aircraft, the expectation was for 440 deliveries by the end of August, with actual deliveries slightly higher at 447. For September, the target was set at 503 deliveries, which would require 56 deliveries during the month.
As of September 20, data provider Cirium recorded 25 Airbus deliveries. Historically, about 46% of September deliveries occur by this date, which would suggest a total of 54 deliveries for the month. However, the range of past September deliveries varies significantly, from 39% to 58% by the 20th, indicating a potential total of anywhere between 43 and 64 deliveries.
Citi's analysis suggests that if Airbus manages to deliver approximately 54 to 56 aircraft in September, it would align with expectations.
A count of 60 deliveries would be viewed as a positive outcome.
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