On Tuesday, Citi reaffirmed its Buy rating on Ipsen SA (IPN:FP) (OTC: IPSEF) stock, maintaining a price target of €130.00 for the pharmaceutical company. The endorsement follows the recent FDA approval of Ipsen's Iqirvo (elafibranor) for use in the second-line treatment of Primary Biliary Cholangitis (PBC), a chronic liver disease.
Citi's analysis suggests that concerns regarding competition from Gilead (NASDAQ:GILD)'s seladelpar in the same market are exaggerated. The firm projects that both medications can coexist and effectively grow the market. According to their model, Iqirvo is expected to capture a 45% market share at its peak. Citi has concluded its catalyst watch on the drug post-approval.
The bank's forecasts for Iqirvo peak at sales of €540 million, substantially higher than the consensus estimate of €300 million. The agreement with Ipsen's partner, Genfit, includes an 8-20% tiered royalty on sales.
Recent data presented at the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) indicated that Iqirvo showed sustained efficacy at 78 weeks, with 70% of patients achieving the composite endpoint.
While Gilead is anticipating approval for seladelpar in August, Citi's core earnings per share (EPS) predictions for Ipsen are up to 18% above the consensus for the medium term. Additionally, scenario analysis by Citi indicates a valuation range for Ipsen of €150 to €101, depending on market conditions and performance outcomes.
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