On Thursday, CFRA upgraded Ubisoft Entertainment SA (UBI:FP) (OTC: UBSFY (OTC:UBSFY)) stock from a Sell to a Hold rating and increased the price target to EUR14.00, up from EUR9.50. The new price target is based on a valuation of 3.8 times the fiscal year 2025 (ending in March) consensus EBITDA, aligning with the company's three-year average enterprise value to EBITDA multiple.
The firm revised its fiscal year 2025 earnings per share (EPS) estimate to a loss of EUR0.50 from a profit of EUR0.10, while maintaining its fiscal year 2026 EPS estimate at EUR1.20. The adjustment comes despite Ubisoft's weaker financials and a less robust launch calendar. The company's share price has recently seen an uptick due to speculation about a potential buyout by its principle majority shareholder, Guillemot Bros Limited, in partnership with Tencent (HK:0700).
Ubisoft's financial performance in the first half of fiscal year 2025 showed net bookings falling by 21.9% to EUR642.3 million, which was within the company's revised guidance. However, Player Recurring Investment (PRI) bookings saw a significant decrease of 39.2% due to a lack of new launches in the second quarter. Furthermore, the company reported a non-IFRS operating loss of EUR252.1 million for the first half of fiscal year 2025, a stark contrast to the operating income of EUR43.5 million in the same period the previous year.
CFRA remains neutral on the possibility of a buyout, acknowledging that while there is no definitive announcement regarding such a move, the potential involvement of Tencent could provide a supportive floor for Ubisoft's share price.
In other recent news, Ubisoft Entertainment SA has seen significant changes in its financial outlook and stock ratings due to a potential buyout, game delays, and revised earnings estimates. Bernstein SocGen Group upgraded Ubisoft's stock from Underperform to Market Perform, setting a new price target at €13.90, influenced by media reports about a potential buyout involving the Guillemot family and Tencent. However, HSBC raised Ubisoft's stock target to €15.40, maintaining a 'Hold' rating due to uncertainty surrounding the company's operations.
Deutsche Bank downgraded Ubisoft's stock from 'Buy' to 'Hold', reducing the price target from €24.00 to €15.00 due to lowered net bookings targets and game delays. BMO Capital Markets adjusted Ubisoft's price target from €22.00 to €20.00, maintaining an 'Outperform' rating. Ubisoft's revised financial guidance for the fiscal year ending in March 2025 now anticipates a break-even point, a significant shift from the previous profit estimate of just above €400 million.
This adjustment comes after the postponement of two major mobile game releases to fiscal year 2026, and the delayed release of "Assassin's Creed Shadows" to February 15, which moves a substantial amount of revenue into fiscal year 2026. These recent developments reflect the dynamic situation at Ubisoft and the various factors influencing its financial prospects.
InvestingPro Insights
Recent data from InvestingPro sheds additional light on Ubisoft's financial situation and market performance. Despite the company's recent challenges, Ubisoft boasts impressive gross profit margins of 91.13% for the last twelve months as of Q4 2024, reflecting strong underlying profitability in its core business. This aligns with one of the InvestingPro Tips highlighting Ubisoft's "impressive gross profit margins."
However, the company's stock has faced significant headwinds, with a 38.07% price decline over the past six months. This downturn is consistent with another InvestingPro Tip noting that the "stock has taken a big hit over the last six months." Interestingly, despite this overall decline, Ubisoft has shown a strong return of 30.41% over the last month, possibly reflecting the market's reaction to buyout speculation mentioned in the article.
For investors seeking a more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers 11 additional tips on Ubisoft, providing a deeper understanding of the company's financial health and market position. These insights could be particularly valuable given the current speculation surrounding Ubisoft's future ownership structure.
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