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Brinker stock downgraded by JPMorgan after impressive run, sees limited upside

EditorEmilio Ghigini
Published 10/31/2024, 03:52 PM
EAT
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On Thursday, JPMorgan adjusted its stance on Brinker International (NYSE: NYSE:EAT) stock, the parent company of Chili's and other restaurant brands, shifting from an Overweight to a Neutral rating, while notably increasing the price target to $100 from the previous $67. This change comes after Brinker International reported a 14.1% increase in comparable store sales for Chili's in the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, a follow-up to the 14.8% comp growth in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2024.

The significant sales growth has been attributed to the success of promotional campaigns, such as the "3 for me" offer that started in June 2022 and the more recent "Big Smasher" combo, strategically priced at $10.99. The company has effectively positioned these deals to compete with fast-food offerings, providing perceived higher value at a lower price point.

Brinker International has also diversified its advertising strategy, combining traditional methods with modern digital approaches. The company invested in 27 weeks of television advertising in fiscal year 2024 and plans to increase this to 31 weeks in fiscal year 2025. Moreover, the brand has embraced social media platforms, including TikTok, to leverage influencers and promote longstanding products like the "Triple Dipper."

The leadership of CEO Kevin Hochman, who took the helm on June 6, 2022, has been highlighted as a key factor in the company's recent success. Since his appointment, when the stock was valued at $30, Brinker International's stock has seen a significant rise, now trading around $104. This growth marks a substantial turnaround from the company's lower performance in the first quarter of fiscal year 2023.

In other recent news, Brinker International, the parent company of Chili's and Maggiano's, reported strong financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025. The company's total revenues reached $1,139 million, marking a 13% increase in consolidated comparable sales.

Furthermore, the adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) saw a substantial rise to $0.95, up from $0.28 in the previous year. This positive performance was attributed to effective marketing campaigns, operational efficiencies, and strategic investments, leading Brinker to raise its revenue and EPS guidance for fiscal 2025.

In addition, Chili's comparable sales grew by 14.1%, while Maggiano's comparable sales rose by 4.2%, despite a decrease in traffic. Brinker also highlighted its ongoing modernization efforts, including the implementation of Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) ERP in its back-office systems. However, it's worth noting that Maggiano's experienced a traffic decline of 8.7%.

These are recent developments that reflect Brinker's confidence in its growth trajectory and its commitment to operational efficiency. The company's strong start to fiscal 2025, marked by increased sales and profitability, sets a positive tone for the forthcoming quarters.

InvestingPro Insights

Brinker International's recent performance aligns with several key metrics and insights from InvestingPro. The company's stock has shown remarkable strength, with InvestingPro data indicating a 207.34% price total return over the past year and a 94.5% return over the last six months. This impressive performance is reflected in the stock trading near its 52-week high, at 98.15% of that peak.

The company's revenue growth is also noteworthy, with a 12.34% increase in the most recent quarter, supporting the strong comparable store sales growth mentioned in the article. However, investors should note that Brinker International is trading at a P/E ratio of 24.36, which InvestingPro Tips suggest is a high earnings multiple relative to its peers.

Two particularly relevant InvestingPro Tips highlight that 11 analysts have revised their earnings upwards for the upcoming period, and the company is trading at a low P/E ratio relative to near-term earnings growth. These insights support the positive outlook and the JPMorgan price target increase discussed in the article.

For readers interested in a deeper analysis, InvestingPro offers 17 additional tips for Brinker International, providing a comprehensive view of the company's financial health and market position.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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