On Monday, Bernstein SocGen Group revised its stance on shares of Ubisoft Entertainment SA (UBI:FP) (OTC: UBSFY (OTC:UBSFY)), upgrading the video game company's stock from Underperform to Market Perform. The adjustment comes with a new price target set at €13.90, decreased from the previous target of €19.00.
The revision was influenced by recent media reports last Friday about a potential buyout involving the Concert, which includes the Guillemont family and Tencent (HK:0700). Together, they currently own 25.4% of Ubisoft's share capital and 29.6% of its voting rights. The analyst noted that the upgrade is strictly based on the prospective buyout's impact on the company's financials, including a potential reduction in the cost of debt and a lower equity risk profile.
According to the analyst's assessment, should a buyout offer be confirmed, the discounted cash flow (DCF) based price target for Ubisoft would be €13.9 per share. This figure represents a 27% decrease from the former price target of €19. However, the analyst also cautioned that if the buyout does not occur, the price target for Ubisoft could plummet by approximately 50% to €6.9 per share.
This potential drop reflects the higher cost of debt and increased equity risk profile that would persist without the deal, including the possibility of a credit event for the company.
The market's reaction to these developments and the potential buyout will continue to be monitored closely, as investors weigh the implications of the proposed changes to Ubisoft's financial structure.
In other recent news, Ubisoft Entertainment SA has been in the spotlight following several adjustments in its stock ratings and price targets. HSBC raised Ubisoft's stock target to €15.40, up from €10.80, following reports of a potential buyout by the Guillemot Family and Tencent. However, the 'Hold' rating is still maintained due to the uncertainty surrounding the company's operations.
Deutsche Bank downgraded Ubisoft's stock from 'Buy' to 'Hold', reducing the price target from €24.00 to €15.00 due to lowered net bookings targets and game delays. BMO Capital Markets also adjusted Ubisoft's price target from €22.00 to €20.00, maintaining an 'Outperform' rating.
Ubisoft's revised financial guidance for the fiscal year ending in March 2025 now anticipates a break-even point, a significant shift from the previous profit estimate of just above €400 million. This adjustment comes after the postponement of two major mobile game releases to fiscal year 2026, and the delayed release of "Assassin's Creed Shadows" to February 15, which moves a substantial amount of revenue into fiscal year 2026.
In addition to these developments, TD Cowen reduced its shares target from EUR27.00 to EUR23.00 while maintaining a 'Hold' rating. Exane BNP Paribas (OTC:BNPQY) downgraded Ubisoft's stock from 'Outperform' to 'Neutral', setting a new price target at €14.50 due to underperforming AAA titles and free-to-play games.
InvestingPro Insights
Recent data from InvestingPro sheds additional light on Ubisoft's financial situation, providing context to the analyst's revised outlook. The company's market capitalization stands at $1.97 billion, with a P/E ratio of 11.36 based on the last twelve months as of Q4 2024. This relatively low P/E ratio could suggest that the stock is undervalued, aligning with the potential buyout scenario discussed in the article.
InvestingPro Tips highlight Ubisoft's impressive gross profit margins, which are reflected in the data showing a gross profit margin of 91.13% for the last twelve months. This strong profitability metric underscores the company's efficient cost management in game development and distribution.
Another relevant InvestingPro Tip notes that Ubisoft's stock price has fallen significantly over the last three months, corroborated by the 28.1% price decline in the same period. This downward trend may have contributed to the analyst's decision to revise the price target and could make the company a more attractive buyout target.
For investors seeking a more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers 11 additional tips for Ubisoft, providing a deeper understanding of the company's financial health and market position.
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