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UPDATE 8-Oil edges up to fresh 4-week highs as demand outlook improves

Published 04/15/2021, 02:08 PM
Updated 04/16/2021, 03:10 AM
© Reuters
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* U.S. retail sales rebound by more than expected in March
* S&P 500 and the Dow Jones stock indexes hit record highs
* IEA and OPEC boost global oil demand growth forecasts for
2021
* U.S. dollar .DXY falls to 4-week low
* U.S. crude inventories fell last week

(Adds closing prices)
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, April 15 (Reuters) - Oil prices edged up to fresh
four-week highs on Thursday on positive U.S. economic data and
higher demand forecasts from the International Energy Agency
(IEA) and OPEC as countries start to recover from the COVID-19
pandemic.
After rising almost 5% on Wednesday, Brent LCOc1 futures
rose 36 cents, or 0.5%, on Thursday to settle at $66.94 a
barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1
rose 31 cents, or 0.5%, to settle at $63.46.
That was the highest closes for both benchmarks since March
17 for a second day in a row and put both contracts up for a
fourth straight day for the first time since February.
"Oil is beginning to reconnect with strong equities with
further assistance from a weakening dollar," said Jim
Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena,
Illinois.
U.S. retail sales rebounded more than expected in March as
Americans received additional pandemic relief checks and as
COVID-19 vaccinations allowed broader economic
re-engagement. That data and upbeat earnings from several companies helped
push the S&P 500 .SPX and the Dow Jones .DJI indexes to
record highs, bolstering hopes of a broader economic rebound.
The U.S. dollar .DXY was on track to fall to a four-week
low against a basket of currencies. A weaker dollar makes oil
cheaper for holders of other currencies, which traders said
helps support crude prices. "Wednesday's gains were a bit excessive, but they were built
on valid grounds, as several high-profile reports forecasted
demand growth for the second part of the year and as crude
stocks in the U.S. surprised traders with quite significant
draws," said Bjornar Tonhaugen, head of oil markets at Rystad
Energy.
"Today the market is holding on to these gains, only cutting
down on the froth from this week's enthusiasm," Tonhaugen said.
The IEA and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries this week made upward revisions to their global oil
demand growth forecasts for 2021 to 5.7 million barrels per day
(bpd) and 5.95 million bpd respectively.
U.S. crude inventories USOILC=ECI , meanwhile, fell 5.9
million barrels last week, government data showed on Wednesday,
with East Coast crude stocks falling to a record low.
Supply discipline and rebounding economies are set to give
oil a chance to break out of the recent range, analysts at
Goldman Sachs said in a report.
"We remain positive on Brent oil forecasting $80 (per barrel
in the third quarter) on a near-term demand recovery and supply
discipline," the bank said.
Despite all the bullish economic news, some energy traders
noted oil price gains will likely be capped by OPEC's plans to
ease production cuts starting next month.
OPEC and its allies, including Russia, a group known as
OPEC+, agreed to bring back about 2 million barrels per day
(bpd) of production over the next three months. The United States, meanwhile, imposed a broad array of
sanctions on Russia to punish it for alleged interference in the
2020 U.S. election, cyber-hacking, bullying Ukraine and other
"malign" acts.

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