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UPDATE 6-Oil slumps but sets monthly gain ahead of OPEC meeting

Published 11/30/2019, 03:41 AM
© Reuters.  UPDATE 6-Oil slumps but sets monthly gain ahead of OPEC meeting
LCO
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CL
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* OPEC+ expected to extend, not deepen cuts in meeting next
week
* For the month, Brent gains 6% and WTI rises 2.3%
* China warns U.S. of retaliation for backing Hong Kong
protesters
* U.S. crude output rises to record 12.5 mln bpd in Sept-
EIA

(Updates with settlement prices)
By Jessica Resnick-Ault
NEW YORK, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Friday, with
U.S. crude dropping more than 4%, on fresh trade tensions and
record high U.S. crude production, but they still ended the
month higher as OPEC watchers expect an extension next week to a
pact to throttle oil output beyond March.
Brent crude futures LCOc1 settled down $1.44 at $62.43 a
barrel, and was down 1.5% on the week. Still, the contract
posted its biggest monthly gain since April with a rise of about
6%.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures CLc1 settled down
$2.94 at $55.17, falling of 4.1% on the week, after three
consecutive increases. On a monthly basis, WTI is poised for a
jump of about 2.3%, its highest since June.
Trading volumes were low due after Thursday's U.S.
Thanksgiving Day holiday.
Both benchmarks rose in November partly on expectations of
the United States and China reaching an initial deal trade deal
by the year-end, that could lift doubts over future demand for
crude, along with it the health of the global economy.
However, that has started to look less likely after China
warned the United States on Thursday it would take "firm counter
measures" in response to U.S. legislation backing
anti-government protesters in Hong Kong. Prices have also been supported ahead of next week's meeting
of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)
and allies including Russia, as the group known as OPEC+ is
expected to extend existing oil output cuts until mid-2020.

Moscow is supporting Saudi Arabia's push for stable oil
prices amid the listing of state oil giant Saudi Aramco, and
next week's gathering coincides with the planned announcement of
the final pricing for Aramco's 2222.SE initial public
offering.
Investors, however, were also eyeing whether the producer
group would agree to deeper cuts.
"The bottom line is some people are looking for OPEC+ to cut
production, and I don't think that's going to happen," said
Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates in Houston. If
the cuts fall short of expectations or last only a few months,
the market will sell off, he said.
OPEC+ agreed to reduce supply by 1.2 million barrels per day
in 2019 through to March as U.S. output continues to climb to
record levels.
OPEC's share of that cut is 800,000 bpd among the 11 members
participating in the deal. A Reuters survey on OPEC output
indicates that total OPEC output fell by 110,000 bpd in
November. Russian oil companies on Thursday proposed to keep their
output quotas unchanged, putting pressure on OPEC+ to avoid any
major shift at the meeting over Dec. 5-6.
Crude prices have also faced pressure from growing U.S.
output, which in September rose to a new record of 12.46 million
bpd from 12.397 million bpd in August, the government said in a
monthly report on Friday. Oil supply from the North Sea, where crude differentials
have been hitting several year highs CRU/E , is set to increase
in January, sending a bearish signal. O/LOAD
A Reuters poll of 42 economists and analysts forecast Brent
to average $62.50 a barrel next year, little changed from last
month's $62.38 outlook, which was the lowest prediction for 2020
in about two years. O/POLL
The benchmark has averaged about $64 per barrel so far this
year.

<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
CHART: U.S. oil may test support at $57.37 per barrel
Brent oil may retest support at $63.24 per barrel
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