* Most of Libya's oil export capacity under force majeure
* Oil disruption could be offset by OPEC output -PAJ
president
* Anti-government unrest resumes in Iraq
* Graphic on Libya exports: https://tmsnrt.rs/30D1s02
(Adds settlement prices)
By Jessica Resnick-Ault
NEW YORK, Jan 21 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Tuesday on
expectations that a well-supplied global market, including
supplies from record U.S. production, would be able to absorb
disruptions that have cut Libya's crude production to a trickle.
Brent LCOc1 futures settled down 20 cents at $64.59 a
barrel. U.S. crude CLc1 fell 20 cents, or 0.3%, to $58.38 per
barrel.
Libya's barrels "although plentiful when around, have not
been a reliable count," said Brayton Tom, senior risk manager
for INTL FCStone's energy team. "At the end of the day spare
capacity is abundant in the region."
Almost all of Libya's crude export capacity is now under
force majeure - a waiver on contractual obligations - after
pipeline blockades in the east and west of the country hindered
oil production.
If Libyan exports are halted for any sustained period,
storage tanks will fill within days and production will slow to
72,000 barrels per day (bpd), said a spokesman for state oil
company NOC. Libya has been producing about 1.2 million bpd
recently. Anti-government unrest in Iraq, another major oil producer,
also supported oil prices initially, but officials later said
output from southern oilfields has been unaffected by the
unrest. Any supply disruptions could be offset by increased output
from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
(OPEC), which could limit the impact on global oil markets, the
head of Japan's petroleum industry body said. ING said that spare OPEC capacity, which stands in excess of
3 million bpd, was reassuring the market.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Monday trimmed back
its 2020 global economic growth forecasts by a tenth of a
percentage point to 3.3% because of sharper than expected
slowdowns in India and other emerging markets. But the IMF said
a U.S.-China trade deal was another sign that trade and
manufacturing activity could soon bottom out. Barclays on Tuesday forecast 2020 oil demand to rise by 1.4
million bpd, 50,000 bpd higher than its previous forecast and up
from growth of 900,000 bpd in 2019. The bank maintained its 2020 forecasts for Brent and West
Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices at $62 and $57 a barrel,
respectively.
Thanks to a shale boom, the United States has become the
world's top oil producer, with output hitting a record-high 13
million bpd, according to government data last week. Weekly U.S.
energy reports have been delayed a day this week in observance
of the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday on Monday.
EIA/S
U.S. oil and natural gas output in major shale formations is
expected to rise by the smallest amount in about a year in
February, but will still set a new high, the U.S. Energy
Information Administration (EIA) said on Tuesday, as producers
pull back on new drilling. <^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Libya Crude Exports by port https://tmsnrt.rs/30D1s02
Libya will face 'catastrophe' if oil blockade continues -Tripoli
premier ID:nL8N29P3F0
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