* Asian stock markets: https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4
(Adds comments)
SINGAPORE, Jan 8 (Reuters) - An Iranian rocket attack on
U.S. forces based in Iraq has sent markets into turmoil and
investors racing for safety. Here are analyst views on the
market moves:
SEAN CALLOW, FX ANALYST, WESTPAC, SYDNEY
"The weight of money is counting on a replay of the
price-action on Monday. Essentially people are betting that this
is not going to be our main focus three months from now."
DAVID KOTOK, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, CUMBERLAND ADVISORS,
FLORIDA
"The market looks at...single events and doesn't say it is a
sequence intensifying to larger scale war. It is pricing in
tension and risk but not the development of larger scale war."
JAMES MCGLEW, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF CORPORATE STOCKBROKING,
ARGONAUT, PERTH
"We are getting exaggerated moves but that's of course
volatility playing. Markets simply hate uncertainty. It's an old
adage but it definitely holds true in the current situation -
markets can price risks but they can't price uncertainty.
"I don't think it's going to be a bloodbath in the equities
market but this volatility certainly takes the wind out of the
sails."
CLIFF TAN, EAST ASIAN HEAD OF GLOBAL MARKETS RESEARCH, MUFG,
HONG KONG
"I think the market yesterday was very short-sighted. I
don't know any serious analyst who's looked at Iran for a while
who didn't expect any kind of retaliation. Unfortunately, I'm
not sure if this round (of retaliation) will be the last round."
JEFFREY HALLEY, SENIOR MARKET ANALYST, ASIA PACIFIC, OANDA
"Expect equities to take a hit, especially in imported
energy-dependent Asia. Airline stocks will be out of favour
today because of oil, but that won't be the whole story.
"The potential closure of the Straits of Hormuz - Iran has
plenty of land-based anti-ship missiles - will severely disrupt
oil supplies from the Middle East. We may also see next week's
signing of the interim U.S.-China trade agreement in Washington
DC delayed."
KAY VAN-PETERSEN, GLOBAL MACRO STRATEGIST, SAXO CAPITAL
MARKETS, SINGAPORE
"That's the key risk, that they maybe kill Americans, and
the U.S. strikes Iran and then they do something else that again
is kind of direct. But I don't think it takes us to a market
rout. It makes it a little bit tougher to play the bounce, but
it's still going to be the same old move at the end of the day.
"I guess the biggest risk is actually just something else
entering...I just think for proper risk-off, you're going to
need a lot more at the end of the day."
MICHAEL PURVES, CEO, TALLBACKEN CAPITAL, NEW YORK
"If it stays more controlled (confined to the Middle East),
the market will motor through this.
"If it escalates, it is a different game. What is really
haunting me is - will investors who are pushing the FANG stocks
use this as an excuse to sell and then equities fall into a 3-5
percent pullback?"
CHRISTOPHER STANTON, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, SUNRISE
CAPITAL, SAN DIEGO
"Things have become increasingly overbought. If you're an
investor, don't you want to take it easy here and back off a
bit?
(Further escalation could) give you a big, double-digit drop
that just scares the living daylights out of folks".
ANTHONY CHAN, CHIEF ASIA INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, UNION
BANCAIRE PRIVEE, HONG KONG
"The market is basically waiting to see if this is it, or if
there will be more retaliation from Iran.
"Investors hate uncertainty. If there really is a war the
outlook would actually be clearer. At the moment, the
uncertainty is overshadowing performance."
MASAYUKI KICHIKAWA, CHIEF MACRO STRATEGIST, SUMITOMO MITSUI
ASSET MANAGEMENT CO, TOKYO
"Trump is doing this for the U.S. presidential election but
seems to have made some miscalculations. Iran also miscalculated
its response when paramilitary forces linked to Iran surrounded
the U.S. embassy. Iran is already in bad shape because of U.S.
economic sanctions and does not have the military capability to
defeat the United States in a direct war.
"Both sides have incentives to control this situation after
a few rounds of retaliation, but this depends on how much damage
there is to Iraqi oil production capacity, what happens between
Iran and Israel and the scale of human casualties. Hopefully in
two to three weeks there could be some efforts from both sides
to at least contain the situation."
GEORGE KANAAN, HEAD OF AUSTRALIAN SALES, UBS, SYDNEY
"In the short term, the market will shrug it off. However it
will be closely monitoring any further developments. Any future
actions by either side will be taken much more seriously."
ASHLEY GLOVER, HEAD OF SALES TRADING FOR APAC AND CANADA,
CMC MARKETS, SYDNEY
"What we are seeing at the moment is a big risk off move.
"We are looking out for whether the U.S. is going to
retaliate so it's going to be a big wait-and-see mode until we
hear from Trump. And as a result, U.S. futures are off the lows
now. We are seeing that 'buy the dip' mentality creeping in as
big long-term investors like to buy into these weaknesses."
HIDESHI MATSUNAGA, ANALYST, SUNWARD TRADING, TOKYO
"It's getting really serious...but there is a feeling of
achievement in terms of technical charts as Brent has surged to
above $70/barrel and near a high in September, 2019 after
attacks on Saudi Arabian oil sites.
"We have to see how much and what damage the latest attacks
have caused, but oil markets may come down, just like last
September, if we can confirm that oil facilities have not been
affected and as both U.S. and Iran don't want a war."
ROB CARNELL, ASIA-PACIFIC CHIEF ECONOMIST, ING, SINGAPORE
"It's a very classic risk off, and I guess the question is
how far do you push it, and I'd say keep going.
"This is the Iranian response to the killing of Soleimani.
We now have to see what the U.S. response to the Iranian
response is. This looks as if it could escalate. From a market
perspective I think this one could run and run."
RAY ATTRILL, HEAD OF FX STRATEGY, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK,
SYDNEY
"The threat of retaliation the market was worried about last
week looks to have become real so there is no other way for
markets to go really other than to go to safe havens.
"The presumption was that U.S. President Donald Trump
wouldn't want to start a war this side of election but that
presumption would potentially be tested."
JAMES ROSENBERG, FINANCIAL ADVISER, BAILLIEU HOLST
"The bigger picture will be how the U.S. responds and
whether it all escalates. It's too early to tell so some
smallish early selling to reduce risk would be my assessment."
MIKE O'ROURKE, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, JONES TRADING
"It is important to note that President Trump was very clear
that the U.S. would deliver a heavy handed response to any
Iranian retaliation. Thus, futures should not only be reacting
to the Iranian attack, but also to the clear escalation that
will be the impending U.S. escalation."
MATT SIMPSON, MARKET ANALYST, GAIN CAPITAL, SINGAPORE
"You can pretty much get the sentiment from gold. It is
holding above $1,600. If there is confirmation that there are
U.S. casualties, it could go higher.
"If it does look like we've got U.S. casualties, then I
don't think Trump is going to just stand back and take
that...World War III has been thrown around. I don't think we're
there yet. But it does look like Iraq II."