Investing.com -- JPMorgan expects a near-term downturn for base metals in early 2025 due to potential U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods but sees a rebound later in the year, supported by stronger Chinese economic stimulus and improved valuations.
“While base metals price forecasts have been marked lower due to these tariff concerns, there is an expectation of a favorable risk/reward scenario for investing in base metals in the coming quarters,” analyst said.
JP Morgan’s Greg Shearer lowered the base metals price forecasts, due to tariff concerns and a weakened Chinese yuan.
However, a V-shaped recovery is expected beginning in the second quarter, with copper prices reaching $10,400 per metric ton by year-end and aluminum climbing to $2,850/mt.
Zinc prices are expected to remain stable, while nickel may stay under pressure at $16,000/mt due to oversupply.
For precious metals, JPMorgan projects gold prices rising to $3,000 an ounce and silver surging to $38/oz by late 2025 as markets stabilize. Platinum is expected to rally to $1,200/oz, driven by supply constraints.
In the iron ore market, JPMorgan highlighted improving fundamentals with a recovery in Chinese steel output and falling inventories. Analyst forecasts iron ore prices at $100/t in 2025, supported by seasonal factors and robust Chinese steel demand, though long-term prices are seen moderating to $80/t.
Risks to the outlook include potential U.S. tariffs, Chinese stimulus measures, and incremental supply from key producers like Vale and Onslow.