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UBS holds off on Inventiva stock—MASH potential is there, but 2026 is a long wait

EditorEmilio Ghigini
Published 11/12/2024, 04:52 PM
IVA
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On Tuesday, UBS initiated coverage on Inventiva SA (NASDAQ:IVA) stock with a Neutral rating and a price target of $3.00. The firm highlighted the potential of Inventiva's drug candidate lanifibranor, which is being developed for the treatment of MASH F2/3 and is currently in Phase 3 clinical trials.

The analyst noted the promising data from Phase 2 and the drug's potential to capture a share of the large MASH market, which is estimated to reach peak adjusted sales of approximately €700 million.

Despite the optimism for lanifibranor's effectiveness, particularly for patients with both MASH and T2D, UBS expressed a cautious stance in the near term. The anticipation for Phase 3 data, expected in the second half of 2026, positions the next one to two years as a critical execution period for Inventiva.

The company's progress with a recent financing agreement and future tranches was acknowledged as a positive step in funding the ongoing trial, although it was also noted that this financing could be significantly dilutive to shareholders.

UBS's neutral position reflects a wait-and-see approach, as the firm awaits further data from the Phase 3 study. The analyst's comments suggest that while lanifibranor has shown promise, the investment community may adopt a cautious outlook until more definitive results become available.

Inventiva's stock rating and price target by UBS come at a time when the biotech industry is closely monitoring developments in treatments for metabolic diseases such as MASH. The company's focus on lanifibranor and its potential market impact are of particular interest to investors and industry watchers alike.

Investors and stakeholders in Inventiva SA will likely monitor the company's progress as it advances through the clinical trial phases and moves closer to potential commercialization of lanifibranor. The outcome of the Phase 3 trials will be a key determinant of Inventiva's future and its positioning within the biopharmaceutical market.

In other recent news, Inventiva SA has secured a significant financial injection of €94.1 million, part of a potential funding package that could reach up to €348 million, subject to certain conditions.

The funding round involved participation from both new and existing healthcare investors, including New Enterprise Associates, BVF Partners LP, and Samsara BioCapital.

Additionally, the company is set to appoint Mark Pruzanski, MD, as the Chairman of its Board and Srinivas Akkaraju, MD, PhD, as a board director, pending shareholder approval.

Inventiva has also secured $410 million in funding to support the completion of its Phase 3 NATiV3 pivotal program for the treatment of MASH, a metabolic dysfunction disorder. The NATiV3 trial, which has enrolled approximately 1,100 patients, is expected to be completed in the first half of 2025. This funding and trial progression are recent developments that have led to revised stock targets by H.C. Wainwright and Stifel.

H.C. Wainwright adjusted the price target for Inventiva to $13.00, down from the previous $14.00, while maintaining a Buy rating. This adjustment followed the announcement of a minor delay in the NATiV3 Phase 3 trial.

Despite this delay, the trial has surpassed 85% of its enrollment goal and is expected to complete patient screening by year's end, with top-line data anticipated in the second half of 2026.

Stifel, on the other hand, reaffirmed its Buy rating and adjusted its price target for Inventiva to $20.00. However, the firm expressed concerns about Inventiva's financial stability, despite efforts to extend its cash runway and raise additional funds. These adjustments reflect the increased financial and execution risks that Inventiva is currently facing.

InvestingPro Insights

Recent InvestingPro data provides additional context to Inventiva SA's (NASDAQ:IVA) financial position and market performance. Despite UBS's cautious stance, the company has shown a strong return over the last month and three months, with price total returns of 42.86% and 24.14% respectively. This recent momentum could reflect growing investor interest in Inventiva's potential.

However, InvestingPro Tips highlight some financial challenges. The company is quickly burning through cash and is not profitable over the last twelve months, with a negative operating income margin of -518.59%. This aligns with UBS's concerns about the company's execution period and potential dilution from financing.

On a positive note, Inventiva boasts impressive gross profit margins of 94.38%, which could be advantageous if lanifibranor reaches commercialization. The company's market cap stands at $223.86 million, with analysts setting a fair value target of $13 per share, significantly higher than the current price.

For investors seeking a more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers 8 additional tips for Inventiva SA, providing deeper insights into the company's financial health and market position.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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