On Friday, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) adjusted its stance on Brinker International (NYSE:NYSE:EAT) stock, shifting its rating from Underweight to Equalweight. Accompanying this upgrade, the firm also increased the price target to $115 from the previous target of $70.
The upgrade comes as Brinker's stock has delivered an impressive 217% return over the past year, currently trading near its 52-week high of $136.15. According to InvestingPro analysis, the stock appears slightly overvalued at current levels.
The analyst at Morgan Stanley acknowledged a shift in perspective, noting that despite a previous counter-consensus patience, the consistent data no longer supports their earlier view. The upward revision cycle for Brinker International's estimates is expected to continue, which contributed to the rating change.
InvestingPro data shows strong fundamentals supporting this view, with the company achieving a robust 29.39% return on equity and maintaining healthy profit margins. Subscribers can access 12 additional exclusive ProTips and comprehensive financial analysis for Brinker International.
The firm recognized the successful turnaround of Chili's, which has been reflected in the company's stock price. The analyst expressed confidence in the sustainability of the recent positive trends, suggesting that the risk of a complete reversal is now seen as less likely.
Morgan Stanley highlighted improvements in Brinker International's financial health, specifically pointing out that the company's margins, balance sheet, and capital availability appear structurally better. This assessment suggests a more robust overall financial position for the company, which is anticipated to remain strong even as sales growth begins to moderate.
The company's financial strength is reflected in its Altman Z-Score of 3.48 and Piotroski Score of 7, as reported by InvestingPro, indicating solid financial health despite operating in a competitive restaurant sector.
The analyst concluded that the broader profit and loss statement, which had previously been a concern, now seems less worrisome. The improved financial outlook for Brinker International, beyond just the short-term comparable sales figures, indicates a potentially better standing in the future.
In other recent news, Brinker International, the parent company of Chili's and Maggiano's restaurants, has seen significant developments. Goldman Sachs initiated coverage on the company with a Buy rating, recognizing Chili's as a dominant revenue stream that accounts for nearly 90% of the company's annual revenue. The firm also projected a 1% to 2% increase in traffic for Chili's in fiscal years 2026 and 2027.
Brinker International has also granted substantial stock-based compensation awards to its top executives, with CEO and President Kevin Hochman receiving performance shares with a target value of $20 million. These shares are based on the company's Total (EPA:TTEF) Shareholder Return relative to peers in the S&P 1500 Hotels, Restaurants, and Leisure Index.
Several analysts have revised their targets for Brinker following strong Q1 results. Piper Sandler raised its stock target by over 55%, maintaining a neutral rating, while Stifel increased its price target and maintained a buy rating. KeyBanc Capital Markets, Evercore ISI, BMO Capital Markets, and JPMorgan also made adjustments to their price targets and ratings.
These recent developments reflect Brinker's confidence in its growth trajectory and its commitment to operational efficiency. The company's strong start to the fiscal year, marked by increased sales and profitability, has led to positive adjustments by financial analysts.
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