Airbnb (ABNB) reported Q4 EPS of $0.48, $0.23 better than the analyst estimate of $0.25. Revenue for the quarter came in at $1.9 billion versus the consensus estimate of $1.86 billion.
GUIDANCE:
Airbnb sees Q1 2023 revenue of $1.75-1.82 billion, versus the consensus of $1.68 billion.
- We are excited to see the continued strong demand in Q1 2023. We’re particularly encouraged by European guests booking their summer travel earlier this year, the market share gains we are seeing in Latin America, as well as the continued recovery within Asia Pacific.
- We expect revenue of $1.75 billion to $1.82 billion in Q1 2023. This represents year-over-year growth of between 16% and 21% and on an ex-FX basis between 18% and 23%. We expect our implied take rate (defined as revenue divided by GBV) in Q1 2023 to be similar to Q1 2022. We anticipate that the implied take rate seasonality in 2023 will be similar to 2022.
- In Q1 2022, travel was significantly impacted by the Omicron strain of COVID-19 in January and to a lesser extent the war in Ukraine during February, making the earlier part of the quarter an easier year-over-year comparison than the end. In Q1 2023, we expect Nights and Experiences Booked year-over-year growth to be nearly as strong as Q4 2022.
- In Q1 2023, we anticipate slightly lower ADR than we had in Q1 2022. For the remainder of the year, we expect ADR will face increasing downward pressure from mix shift, as well as new and improved pricing and discounting tools. We will be introducing these tools this year and expect these changes to drive greater affordability and value for guests, support bookings growth, and therefore also help Hosts be more successful.
- For the full year 2023, we expect to maintain the strong Adjusted EBITDA margin we delivered in 2022, as we offset the headwinds from lower ADR with incremental variable cost efficiencies and fixed cost discipline. In Q1 2023, we expect Adjusted EBITDA margin to be slightly down on a year-over-year basis due to changes in the timing of our brand marketing spend. Compared to Q1 2022, we expect sales and marketing in Q1 2023 will be approximately 150 basis points higher as a percent of revenue, but flat as a percent of revenue for the full year.