U.S. Labor Market Strong Despite 500 BPS Interest Rate Hike Since 2022

Private companies in the US added 497,000 new jobs in June, up from 267,000 in May and far above the expected 220,00 gain, the new ADP National Employment Report showed. The report, which showed a strong US market despite several interest rate hikes since March 2022, pulling it up by 500 BPS, sent crypto and equity markets tumbling on Thursday.

June Private Payroll Reports Smashes Expectations

US private payrolls rose faster than anticipated in June, suggesting that the labor market remains red hot despite 200 bps worth of interest rate hikes since 2022.

The figure is significantly ahead of the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 220,000 and the revised gain of 267,000 in May. The increase represents the most significant monthly jump since July 2022.

Based on sectors, leisure and hospitality led the gains, adding 232,000 new job positions in June, followed by construction with 97,000. Trade, transportation, and utilities grew quickly, adding 90,000 fresh jobs.

The surprising private payroll spike comes despite a non-stop series of interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve since May 2022. The report suggests the labor market is one of the most resilient drivers of US inflation, which fell from 9.1% in June 2022 to 4% in May 2023.

ADP’s data comes just a day ahead of the nonfarm payrolls report from the US Department of Labor, which is expected to increase by 225,000 in June, down from 339,000 in May. ADP’s National Employment Report is published by Automatic Data Processing, which handles payroll for about 20% of all privately-employed individuals in the US.

Crypto and Equities Slip on the ADP report

While ADP’s payroll reports can sometimes vary compared to the official federal jobs data, it is often viewed as a proxy for overall hiring activity. As such, unexpected job reports are likely to impact US financial markets.

And it did. Crypto markets are mainly in the red in the past 24 hours, with Bitcoin, Ether, and XRP sliding more than 0.4%, 1.4%, and 1.5%, respectively. Similarly, major stock market indexes, including S&P 500 fell 0.8% and the Dow Jones, over 1% Thursday.

Meanwhile, the 10-year, 5-year and 30-year yields all climbed over 2%.

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