In our previous update, see here, we found that:
“Since our preferred analysis method is the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP), [Bitcoin’s (BTCUSD)] “sloppy” price action remains open to interpretation. But we are seeing light at the end of the tunnel.”
Namely, we preferred to label the August 5 low as the green W-4, the August 25 high as grey W-i, and the September 6 low as grey W-ii of an Ending Diagonal (ED) Green W-5 of red W-iii. See Figure 1 below.
Fast forward, and Bitcoin’s price is now challenging the August high as it sits below its (red) 200-day Simple Moving Average (200d SMA). So far, our preferred EWP count in our last update has been correct, so we will keep it until proven otherwise. Ending Diagonals are tricky because all their waves (i-ii-iii-iv-v) comprise three waves: 3-3-3-3-3 = abc-abc-abc-abc-abc.
Thus, like the grey W-i and W-ii, we expect the grey W-iii to form three (orange) waves, as shown in Figure 1 above. Ideally, we see a bit more upside to around $65+/-1K, followed by a modest pullback (orange W-b) to around $61+/-1K before orange W-c to $73-79K kicks in. Contingent on holding above the warning levels (colored dotted lines), with a first warning (blue) below $62350, a 2nd warning (grey) below $60,500, etc. Each subsequent breach of these levels increases the odds that the ED will not unfold, and we must apply the alternative, as shown in Figure 2 below.
In that case, the recent rally was most likely a(nother) B-wave bounce, and a final C-wave to ideally $44-48K should be expected for an even more protracted W-X-Y correction than we already have at the August low.
We placed the warning levels for the Bears on the chart that will tell us above which prices such a lower low become less and less likely. Currently, the Bulls are knocking at the 3rd, orange, door, making this EWP less likely than a month ago. But it remains our insurance policy, just in case.
Besides, BTC’s price is now back above its rising 10d, 20d, and 50d SMAs and above the Ichimoku Cloud. A break above the 200d SMA will turn the chart predominantly Bullish, and we will follow suit though our preferred EWP count (POV) is already Bullish and has been since our last update. Thus, watch for any possible breaks below the Bulls’ warning levels to tell that $90K will not be achieved this time around.