Following the latest IM-2 mission news, Intuitive Machines Inc (NASDAQ:LUNR) stock is down 54% over the month. Presently holding at $8.95 per share, LUNR stock leveled down to an early November price level. This is a significant drop from its all-time high of $24.95 on January 24th.
However, this price dynamic is not that surprising. The question is, how can retail investors exploit it? Reminder, in early January we noted that “if some part of the mission fails or is botched entirely, this would provide an enticing buy-the-dip opportunity.”
Have such conditions transpired? Let’s examine the details.
What Exactly Happened?
On February 26th, Intuitive Machines’ second lunar lander, dubbed Athena for IM-2 mission, took off on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket. Having transmitted selfies, capturing both Earth and the Moon, the lander was in excellent condition to complete the lunar landing.
The lunar landing was scheduled for Thursday, March 6th, aimed at Mons Mouton site. The lander was filled with equipment for 8 organizations: from NASA, Lonestar Data Holdings, Columbia Sportswear (NASDAQ:COLM) and Nokia (HE:NOKIA) to Lunar Outpost, Puli Space, Dymon and German Aerospace Center.
In the period between February 26th and March 6th, the LUNR stock selloff already began. This clearly indicates that most investors were both risk-averse and decided to lock in profits. In other words, most LUNR shareholders speculated the LUNR stock peak would occur before the actual landing event, following the typical “buy the rumor, sell the news” template.
The first news on March 6th indicated successful descent orbit insertion at 4:33 AM CST. However, at the lunar landing news conference later in the day, CEO Steve Altemus revealed that the landing was not entirely successful.
Specifically, that Athena failed to achieve the “correct attitude”, which means the lunar lander likely tipped over upon landing. A similar scenario occurred with Odysseus lander for IM-1 mission, but the lander remained operational despite the sideways orientation.
“I want to get all the measurements, and the pictures, to really be able to explain to you the configuration of the vehicle. I don’t have a good sense of that today, sorry. I have to get more data from it.”
Steve Altemus, Intuitive Machines CEO on Thursday’s press conference
Moreover, Athena missed its 50-meter landing designation at Mons Mouton site. Curiously for a taxpayer-funded organization, NASA turned off the YouTube comment section, so it is difficult to gauge the mood of investors.
What Next (LON:NXT) for Intuitive Machines?
Although not 100% successful, it is expected that Athena’s onboard payload should, in some capacity, deliver data collection. A similar scenario unfolded with Odysseus last year, wherein fortuitously the only payload facing toward the lunar surface was an art project.
However, with both Odysseus and Athena suffering tip-overs, this suggests that Intuitive Machines needs to refine its vertical landing architecture. Fortunately, this may come from Texan Firefly Aerospace, a privately held company lacking any stock options.
Firefly conducted its first fully-successful commercial landing on March 2nd with its Blue Ghost lander. It appears that extensive coast (hover) phase for terrain assessment, combined with the precision of its eight reaction control system jets, was the key to achieve the first-ever full soft landing from a commercial enterprise.
Moving forward, LUNR shareholders can look forward to missions IM-3 and IM-4, with the first one scheduled for Q1 2026, aiming at the Reiner Gamma site. This Moon region appears to be a more challenging terrain for landing, so Intuitive Machines will have to implement lessons from Odysseus and Athena tipovers.
The Bottom Line
For patient investors, the current LUNR stock selloff represents an excellent opportunity to buy the dip. Although other aerospace companies have their contributions in lunar exploration within NASA’s Artemis program, such as Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT) and Northrop Grumman (NYSE:NOC), Intuitive Machines represents the only direct exposure to renewed Moon exploration.
With two missions under their belt, the IM team has enough data to reiterate and improve. Nobody expected this to be an easy endeavor, which is why NASA provided a maximum potential pool of $4.82 billion for Intuitive Machines within the Near Space Network (NSN) contract.
At present, the average LUNR price target is $17.88 vs the current price of $8.95 per share. Per WSJ forecasting data, the low estimate is $14, well above the present price level, indicating excessive selloff due to IM-2 not being entirely successful. Yet, the next anticipation cycle until IM-3 in Q1 2026 is likely to see LUNR stock soar above the average price target.
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Neither the author, Tim Fries, nor this website, The Tokenist, provide financial advice. Please consult our website policy prior to making financial decisions.