Boeing's (NYSE:BA) projected Q4 2024 loss of $5.46 per share reflects significant challenges the company is facing, particularly considering the analysts' expectations of a loss of $1.84 per share. The company anticipates revenue of $15.2 billion, which is also below the market expectations of $16.27 billion.
Key highlights:
Boeing's performance was impacted by a strike involving over 30,000 workers that halted production of 737 MAX, 777, and 767 aircraft. The company faced additional challenges from its struggling defense and space division and a January midair panel blowout quality crisis.
BA's fundamental strengths remain intact, including its strong brand recognition, diverse product portfolio, and established relationships with key customers and suppliers.
The company remains positioned to potentially benefit from several market opportunities, including growing global demand for air travel, particularly in emerging markets, and increased defense spending in key regions.
Yet, as of now, InvestingPro’s fair value tool indicates a 24.8% downside for Boeing stock.
Source: InvestingPro
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Could Boeing Deliver a Beat?
Boeing’s Q4 2024 earnings report hits at 7:30 AM ET today. The company has delivered 21 beats since Q3 2015 but has also missed expectations 18 times since Q1 2016.
Financial Health History
According to InvestingPro, Boeing's Financial Health remains poor. This score, highlighted in the image below, is determined by ranking the company on over 100 factors against companies in the Industrial sector and operating in Developed economic markets.
Source: InvestingPro
Option Statistics:
Put/Call ratio suggests the following three scenarios:
- With a Put/Call ratio between 1.2053 to 0.9488 for the next three upcoming expiries suggest that overall option traders are bearish.
- Lower guidance and outlook could trigger a gradual sell-off as anticipated by the option market. As most of the bad news is priced in.
- Better-than-expected guidance would trigger a sharp rally.
Technical Analysis Perspective:
- BA monthly and weekly charts have two significant technical formations.
- The stock has been hovering inside a large Symmetrical triangle since March 2019 until today.
- Prices tested the base of the triangle in November 2024 at 137 to initiate a Bullish Flag-like pattern.
- BA has been trading in a narrow range since late December 2024 to form the face of the bullish flag.
- BA is likely to range between 183 to 164 for now.
- Good guidance from the CEO, followed by a strong penetration of 183 resistance would eye 210 to 225 in the coming weeks.
A Bullish Flag Pattern Within a Symmetrical Triangle Formation:
- Weekly Candlestick Chart
- Weekly Line Chart
- BA Seasonality Chart:
BA has closed 1% higher in January 45% of the time since 2006.
Conclusion:
BA looks bullish based on weekly chart pattern, a decisive break above 183 would pave the way for a rally to 210- -225. It all depends on the future guidance as most of the negative news is priced in.
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Ali Merchant is a seasoned financial market professional with expertise in Technical Analysis, Treasury & Capital Markets, Trading, Sales, Research, Training, Fund & Relationship Management, Fintech, and Digitalization. He is a CMT charter holder and an active member of CMT Association, USA, American Association of Professional Technical Analysts, and CMT Association of Canada. He has worked on various roles and organizations in North America and the GCC, such as ABN Amro bank, Thomson Reuters, Refinitiv, MAK Allen & Day Capital Partners, and Bridge Information Systems.
He is the founder of TwT Learnings, provides financial market training. Follow us on “X” formerly Twitter “@twtlearning.”