A recent Fidelity Digital Assets report suggests that Bitcoin’s latest pullback aligns with historic bull market behavior, signaling the cycle may not be over.
Bitcoin remains in a high-volatility stage of its market cycle, with Fidelity indicating that historical patterns may still be playing out.
In the report, Fidelity analyst Zack Wainwright analyzed Bitcoin’s price activity since its post-election rally, concluding that current conditions are consistent with previous “acceleration phases” that preceded major peaks in 2011, 2013, and 2017.
“Shifts of this kind have historically been seen during previous Acceleration Phases, a time in bitcoin’s price cycle characterized by high volatility and high profit,” Wainwright noted.
$110K Base Could Mark the Start of Bitcoin’s Next (LON:NXT) Major Surge
Fidelity’s analysis points to historical patterns where Bitcoin’s price experiences two major rallies during the acceleration phase, with the second often surpassing previous all-time highs.
In this cycle, the first surge followed the November 2024 U.S. election. If another breakout occurs, Fidelity expects it to begin from a significantly higher support level.
“If a new all-time high is on the horizon, it will have a starting base near $110,000,” Wainwright wrote.
While Bitcoin has pulled back roughly 22% from its peak of $108.786 in January and remains down over 11% year-to-date, Fidelity views these moves as typical of this stage in the market cycle.
According to the report, the current drawdown is “relatively average” compared to previous cycles, suggesting the asset may still be mid-phase rather than near its conclusion.
Volatility has also increased steadily since July 2024. One-year realized volatility rose from 45% to 51% by early March 2025, aligning with behavior observed in previous acceleration phases.
The report emphasizes that Bitcoin’s volatility has historically skewed to the upside during these periods, with short-term corrections often giving way to renewed rallies.
Institutional Accumulation Supports Fidelity’s View
Despite macroeconomic headwinds and recent price stagnation, institutional demand for Bitcoin remains robust.
Yesterday, MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor announced the company had purchased 22,048 BTC, worth $1.92 billion.
Meanwhile, Marathon Digital (NASDAQ:MARA) Holdings revealed plans to raise up to $2 billion through stock sales to acquire more BTC “from time to time.”
In Japan, Metaplanet issued ¥2 billion (approximately $13.3 million) in bonds to fund Bitcoin purchases, as shared on X by its CEO Simon Gerovich.
Last week, GameStop (NYSE:GME) filed a $1.3 billion convertible notes offering that could partly be used to buy the asset.
Fidelity’s report underscores this ongoing accumulation as a key factor, with large entities appearing “price-agnostic” in their strategy to hold Bitcoin as a reserve.
The combination of sustained institutional buying and historical price dynamics supports Fidelity’s view: Bitcoin’s current cycle has not yet peaked, and a final parabolic rally may still lie ahead.